3 recent SC governor GOP race polls. 3 different leaders. Why the difference?
The race for the Republican nomination for S.C. governor remains wide open and three recent polls on the race have three different leaders more than four months before the primary election.
Let’s breakdown what we know about the polls and how they could show different results.
On Jan. 13, U.S. Rep. Nancy Mace’s campaign released an internal poll showing her in the lead with 23% support. Attorney General Alan Wilson was in second with 19%. Lt. Gov. Pamela Evette was in third place with 14%. U.S. Rep. Ralph Norman was in fourth place with 11%.
The poll found 32% of respondents were undecided. The survey of 700 likely Republican voters had a margin of error was 3.7%. The poll was conducted between Jan. 7 and Jan. 9.
Mace had the highest name ID in the poll, had the highest favorable rating, but she also had the highest unfavorable rating. In the poll, 34% of respondents had a favorable view of her and 44% had an unfavorable view, putting her underwater.
The poll conducted by Stratus Intelligence, used a mix of live phone calls and SMS to web, allowing people to receive a text message to take a poll online.
Mace’s campaign used the poll to argue the Lowcountry congresswoman is the frontrunner.
“They’re not going to release a poll unless there’s a strategic benefit in doing so,” Winthrop University Poll Director Scott Huffmon said of campaigns releasing internal polling data.
Austin McCubbin, who resigned as a Mace campaign advisor, was critical of the Mace poll release.
“If you’re the only candidate where more people dislike you than like you, then you probably shouldn’t publish that data,” McCubbin posted on social media.
A poll released by the Trafalgar Group had Evette in first place with 21.9%, Wilson with 20.1%, Mace in third with 17.3%, Norman with 9.8% and state Sen. Josh Kimbrell with 1.9%. Undecided respondents were at 29%.
That poll of 1,076 likely Republican primary voters, conducted between Jan. 15 and Jan. 20, had a margin of error of 2.9 percentage points. Although Trafalgar, did not specify its methodology for the poll, the polling outfit on its website says it uses a mix of live callers, integrated voice response, text messages, emails, digital dial back interface and online targeted opt-in digital survey platforms.
A poll paid for by the Palmetto Promise Institute, which was conducted by Wick, had Wilson in the lead with 22.5% of support, with Evette in second with 17%. Mace was in third with 13.4%, and Norman in fourth with 12.5%. Kimbrell was in fifth with 1.7% and undecided voters made up 32.8% of respondents.
The poll of 800 likely South Carolina Republican voters reached survey takers using text messages to invite people to take the poll online. The poll was conducted in December, had a margin of error of 3.5 percentage points.
Margin of error is key to remember, because a candidate’s true support among the entire population could be higher or lower than what the poll indicates. For example if a candidate had 30% support in a poll with a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points, that candidates support could be as low as 27% or as high as 33%.
“If two candidates are within the polling margin of error, you should not think of one candidate being absolutely in the lead,” Huffmon said.
What’s consistent in these polls?
Nearly one third of the polled GOP primary electorate remains undecided and no one is close to securing a simple majority. If no candidate secures a majority in the primary election, the race will go to a runoff between the top two vote getters.
Wilson is at least in second place in each of these recent polls.
Norman, who came into 2026 with the most cash on hand is in fourth place. He has said he is holding onto to his money until it may have a greater effect for his campaign.
Kimbrell’s name was tested in two of the polls and was in fifth place in both of those polls.
The poll commissioned by the Palmetto Promise Institute was conducted by Wick. It’s the second poll conducted by Wick of the race and each time Wilson was in the lead.
The poll conducted by Trafalgar was the third poll of Republican race. Each of those polls had Evette in the lead.
“Regarding the 2026 gubernatorial race, the jury is still out,” the Palmetto Promise Institute said in a news release. “With more than four months left until the June 9th primary election, anything can happen.”
