Harrison is set to outspend Graham 7-to-1 on SC airwaves in last month of election
For months Democratic Senate candidate Jaime Harrison has flooded the airwaves, and is set to continue that domination over Republican U.S. Sen. Lindsey Graham.
Harrison has reserved more than $11.1 million in October and November, according to ad tracking firm Advertising Analytics. Graham has reserved $1.5 million worth of time.
Graham does have some help coming to close that 7-to-1 ad spending deficit.
The Senate Leadership Fund has a $10 million buy for a three-week advertising blitz on television and radio in South Carolina.
The Security is Strength PAC, a super PAC backing Graham, released two ads in September, and has $2.2 million worth of time reserved in October and November.
However, believing the seat can be flipped blue in the reliably Republican state, the Senate Majority PAC, a Democratic super PAC, has reserved $5 million in television ad buys and $1.5 million in digital buys in South Carolina, according to a news release from the group.
Both candidates have raised and spent lots of money in their campaigns, easily surpassing the previous records set by Graham in 2014, when he raised $13.8 million and spent $14.2 million to easily win re-election.
As of June 30 of this year, Graham had raised $30.9 million during this cycle, and spent $18.2 million. His campaign ended the second quarter with $15 million cash on hand.
Through June 30, Harrison raised $28.9 million, and spent $18.7 million, leaving his campaign with $10 million cash on hand.
But those close poll numbers helped Harrison rake in more cash during the third quarter, which ended on Wednesday. Although full quarter financial reports have yet to be released, Harrison raised more than $10 million just in the month of August.
The inundation of 30-second spots, sometimes multiple spots during a single commercial break, comes as recent polling says Graham and Harrison are neck and neck.
But will the ad avalanche actually have an effect at swaying the electorate?
“I think one of the misperceptions is that the these ads are effective,” said Jordan Ragusa a political science professor at the College of Charleston. “These campaigns often fight to a draw. They’ve got a very small number of persuadable, the independent minded voters, or voters who are on the fence about whether they’re going to turn out to vote or not. And at some point, every additional dollar does not yield the same return on investment.”
Harrison has been able to buy up lots of TV time as contributions came in after recent polling showed the race was close.
Donors are strategic in how they give to campaigns.
“Donors don’t want to flush $100 down the toilet on a long shot candidate,” Ragusa said. “So the fact that it’s competitive ... has opened the floodgates for Harrison.”
And with the race very close, both campaigns will seek to spend every dollar they have on hand, Ragusa said.
“In the final weeks, we will see an ad every commercial break, probably multiple ones,” Ragusa said.
One Democratic strategist argues the advertising blitz may be working for Harrison citing recent polls showing the race is tied or Graham holding a small lead in the reliably Republican state.
“He’s a Democrat in South Carolina tied with Lindsey Graham. They’re clearly very effective,” said former South Carolina Democratic Party executive director Amanda Loveday.
A statewide race this close and its subsequent spending, is something South Carolina has rarely seen.
“We’ve never seen someone spend this kind of money,” Loveday said.
And the amount of airtime bought up by candidates is giving South Carolina voters something different during than in previous election cycles.
“I think it’s been a long time since we’ve had such a competitive race on a statewide level in South Carolina, but I think our voters are tuned in to what’s happening,” Loveday said.
“This isn’t something that they’re used to every two or four years, so I think that’s a benefit to Jamie (Harrison) and Senator Graham, that (voters) are not used to being bombarded every two or four years, so I think people are paying attention.”
The ad time isn’t just on television. Both candidates have bought digital ads too, including advertising on Facebook, YouTube and phone apps.
Will the ads turn people away?
Both campaigns have used positive ads to highlight their candidates biographies and what they’ve done for the state, but there have been plenty of 30-second attack advertisements on the air, too.
“They’ve always said that negative campaigning has the effect of driving away marginal voters. In other words, voters that we’re going to vote but don’t vote very often are turned off by the whole acrimony and fighting that goes on with negative ads,” said Dave Woodard, a retired Clemson political science professor and former Graham campaign manager. “Well, I think the same thing can be said for just so many ads is it has an effect of decreasing people’s interest and ability to tune in.
“I think people will make up their mind probably earlier, and will not be much affected,” Woodard continued. “But like when whenever you run a campaign, you got one thing you talk about: how much money do we have for television. We all know that if you keep pounding hard enough after a while it does sink in.”
But Graham may be able to counter the ad buys during the month of October through one more avenue.
Graham is the chairman of the Senate Judiciary Committee, which will be in the spotlight starting Oct. 12 as it begins the confirmation hearings of Supreme Court nominee Amy Coney Barrett.
Graham gained a lot of attention for his defense of now Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh during his confirmation hearings, which earned the three-term senator praise from conservatives.
How Graham portrays himself in these hearings itself could become part of a 30-second spot, Woodard said.
“It only takes one word, one time, or one action or something like that, that can be put on an ad and you’re in trouble,” Woodard said. “So I’m not trying to say he’s foolproof, but he is more experienced and all that, and it’s going to be hard to knock him off his game I think ... right here before an election.”
