As House impeachment efforts advance, SC lawmakers could play critical roles
As the impeachment inquiry marches on in the U.S. House of Representatives, some South Carolina lawmakers are facing down a pivotal moment in their political careers. But for others, the vote for or against impeaching President Donald Trump will be an easy one.
Since Democratic leaders announced the beginning of an impeachment inquiry in late September, members of the House Intelligence Committee and House Judiciary Committee have interviewed witnesses on their quest to unearth facts about whether Trump withheld military aid from Ukraine in order to force the country to investigate Democratic presidential hopeful Joe Biden, who could be his opponent in 2020.
And on Tuesday, House leaders announced that the Judiciary Committee would consider two articles of impeachment accusing Trump of obstruction of Congress and abuse of power. Friday morning, members of the committee voted to approve those articles.
So, what comes next? And what role will South Carolina’s congressional leaders play?
Those questions are hard to answer, constitutional and congressional experts say.
The United States Congress has only tried to navigate the murky depths of presidential impeachment three times: in the late ‘90s with President Bill Clinton, in the early ‘70s with President Richard Nixon and in the 1860s with President Andrew Johnson. And there are only two examples of what a trial to remove the president in the Senate would look like — Nixon resigned before the full U.S. House of his time could impeach him.
A president has never been removed by Congress due to impeachment.
“A lot of this stuff is sort of unprecedented, and a lot of people, even people who pay close attention to Congress, kind of don’t know what to expect, in part because there aren’t clearly established rules on exactly how this stuff goes down,” College of Charleston associate professor Jordan Ragusa, a constitutional expert, said. “There are guidelines, but those guidelines can change, and we don’t have very many cases ... to go on.”
The State spoke to three congressional and constitutional experts about how impeachment works and what that means for our congressional delegation.
What comes next?
In the House, the articles of impeachment are treated much like a bill, University of South Carolina professor and constitutional expert Kirk Randazzo said. After going through committee, the articles will head to the full House floor.
But before the articles are taken up on the House floor, the chamber’s Rules Committee must lay out rules for the impeachment debate, Randazzo said. Because impeachment is such a rare occurrence, it’s unclear what that debate would look like or who would be able to speak, he added.
In a normal debate over a bill, both parties would get an equal amount of time to talk, Ragusa said. Typically, proponents and authors of the bill would speak from one side, and field experts and those supporting alternative options would speak for the other, he added.
At this point, Ragusa said, not all 435 members of the House would be given time to speak, but if members of congressional leadership like U.S. Rep. Jim Clyburn, a Columbia Democrat, wanted to debate, he would likely be given time.
The big vote
With the rules set, all of the members of the House would be called to vote on the articles of impeachment. At that point, lawmakers from South Carolina will weigh in definitively.
South Carolina’s five Republican representatives — William Timmons, Ralph Norman, Tom Rice, Jeff Duncan and Joe Wilson — have been vocal opponents of the impeachment inquiry and are expected to vote against the measure. The five likely will be among the minority in the vote, as Democrats hold 233, or almost 54%, of the seats in the House.
Palmetto State Democrats in the House will play much more significant roles where more is at stake.
Predictably as a member of leadership, U.S. Rep. Jim Clyburn, a Democrat from Columbia and the House majority whip, has said he would vote in favor of impeachment.
“The Republican members, who represent very red districts, are going to vote against the impeachment of Donald Trump. Clyburn’s district is about as blue as it gets, especially in the South. He’s going to vote for impeachment,” Ragusa said.
“The one that’s interesting is, of course, Joe Cunningham.”
U.S. Rep. Joe Cunningham, who represents a former GOP stronghold along the coast, has attracted attention from political opponents throughout the impeachment process. He’s a GOP top target for defeat in 2020.
So far, Cunningham has walked a tightrope of neutrality during the impeachment process, not committing to voting one way or another. Congressional leaders believe that Cunningham may be among a block of vulnerable, moderate congressmen who may vote “no” on the articles to boost their chances of keeping their seats during upcoming elections.
To pass the articles of impeachment, House Democrats only need a simple majority. After the articles are passed, House leadership would choose congressmen to make the case for impeachment and removal in the Senate, like a prosecutor would in a court room.
On to the Senate
Once the articles of impeachment — which function like an indictment — pass in the House, the action shifts to the Senate.
“The Senate acts as the trial, where you’ll have the Chief Justice of the Supreme Court presiding, and the senators will act as kind of the jurors of the court, and both sides will be able to give information, question witnesses and so forth,” said Adam Warber, a Clemson University political science professor and expert on the presidency.
But before the trial can start, leadership from both parties will discuss the rules and the format of the proceedings, including which members may be able to ask or submit questions for either side, Randazzo said. Again, though, because impeachment is so rare, the idea of what the trial will look like is still nebulous.
“I would say there are more guidelines here than firm rules,” Ragusa said.
After rules are set, the trial will begin, and U.S. Sens. Lindsey Graham and Tim Scott will become like members of a jury. When each side of the trial finishes presenting evidence, senators may be able to discuss and deliberate, in which case Graham and Scott could make their opinions heard, Warber said.
Lindsey Graham, front and center
As one of Trump’s closest allies, Graham’s voice will likely be influential if the president is put on trial in the upper chamber, Ragusa and other experts agree.
Graham, as a committee chairman and a prominent Republican, likely will have a role in setting the stage for how the trial will play out, Randazzo said, adding that given Graham’s status as Judiciary chairman, Graham may be among the senators who will be allowed to ask questions, he said.
Though he believes any senator who wanted to speak during the trial would be afforded time, Ragusa said Graham’s expertise stemming from his role on the Senate Judiciary Committee and his closeness with the president will make him “a key focal point in the trial.”
Warber said Graham’s power in shaping the impeachment debate also will extend from his frequent appearances on the news.
“He might have some influence in terms of defending the president and in terms of getting his views out during discussion,” Warber said.
Graham’s staff said the senator is still unclear on what his exact role will be, and that won’t be decided until rules for the trial in the Senate are set.
Right now, Graham is supporting voting early on in the process to keep the trial very short, spokesman Kevin Bishop said. Republican senators are discussing one strategy that would not include hearing from witnesses, The Washington Post reported Wednesday.
“Graham has said he would support ending the shams as quickly as possible,” Bishop said. “Many other GOP senators agree.”
Jury deliberation
In the end, senators would vote on whether to remove Trump from office.
To do this, though, two-thirds of senators must vote in favor of removal, meaning Democrats would need to win over 20 Republicans in the GOP-controlled Senate to their side, Ragusa said.
Experts agreed that vote in favor of Trump’s removal would be a long shot.
But, if the motion were to pass, senators could then take up a vote on whether to bar the president from ever running for public office again, Randazzo said. To pass that vote, they would just need a simple majority of 51 votes.
Impeachment, at a glance
The House Judiciary Committee holds hearings to investigate allegations.
The Judiciary Committee creates articles of impeachment.
The committee votes on those articles.
Articles that pass committee are sent to the House floor.
The House Rules Committee decides on the format of debate on the floor.
Representatives follow the Rules Committee’s guidelines in considering the articles.
The House votes on each article of impeachment.
Articles receiving a simple majority of votes are passed to the Senate.
House leadership chooses managers to represent the House’s case in the Senate.
Senate leaders from both parties meet to discuss the format of the trial.
House members and Trump attorneys present their cases to a jury of 100 senators and the chief justice of teh U.S. Supreme Court.
Senators can meet behind closed doors to deliberate and discuss.
Senators will vote on whether to remove the president. A two-thirds vote is needed to remove the president.
If the vote passes, the Senate can vote again to bar the president from seeking public office.
This story was originally published December 13, 2019 at 5:00 AM.
