Graham courts veterans, Guard as he weighs 2016

U.S. Sen. Lindsey Graham says his foreign-policy chops and about $15 million will make him competitive in the GOP’s early presidential primary states.

Concerns about terrorism are on the rise in those states, an issue that plays into his foreign-policy expertise, Graham contends.

To do well in those early primaries, the third-term senator from Seneca says he needs one more thing: a strong organization.

“I know I do well here at home, but I'm not just running to win South Carolina,” Graham told reporters at a stop in Anderson earlier this month. “I'm going to challenge myself to do well in Iowa and New Hampshire.

“If I don't, then I'll get out and support someone else.”

In an effort to build grassroots support, Graham — an Air Force Reserve officer — has been courting fellow veterans and speaking before National Guard groups in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina.

For Graham, a well-known defense hawk in the Senate but a long shot for national office, developing a viable path to the White House depends, in part, on how concerned GOP primary voters are about the threat of terrorism.

“As long as national security and terrorism continue to be the issues they are today, I will be listened to because that's what I'm most known for,” said Graham, who will decide by the end of May whether to run for the Republican nomination.

The rise of the ISIS terrorist group amid Mideastern instability — from Yemen to Iraq to Syria, and U.S.-Iranian negotiations — is helping Graham.

GOP leaders in Iowa and New Hampshire say Republican voters in those states increasingly are worried about national security and want a candidate who reflects that concern.

“If somebody appears to be clueless on foreign policy, that's going to be a nonstarter,” said Bill Gustoff, a GOP state committee member in Iowa.

‘Create a lane on national security’

As chairman of a U.S. Senate Armed Services subcommittee, Graham has access to some of the voters that he hopes to attract.

In Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina, Graham has delivered speeches to National Guard leaders and visited facilities, acting in his role as a senator with military oversight responsibilities.

Graham also has met privately with veterans and Guard members.

Combined, the three early presidential primary states have 22,600 active citizen-soldiers and airmen, and have deployed 38,000 Guard members since the 2001 terror attacks.

To that audience, Graham often touts his more than three decades in military uniform, including six years in the Air Force, another six in the S.C. Air National Guard and his current status as a colonel in the U.S. Air Force Reserve, a rarity among lawmakers. (Former Texas Gov. Rick Perry is the only other veteran publicly considering a run for the GOP nomination.)

Graham says the terrorist threat is now, more than ever, a top issue for GOP voters.

In the recent Winthrop Poll, for example, terrorism edged past concerns about government and the economy as the most important problem facing the United States, according to the S.C. GOP voters surveyed.

Iowa polls also show an increasing concern about terrorism among GOP voters.

“There's a lot of interest among military members to make sure we pick a commander in chief that knows what they're doing,” Graham said, referring to conversations he has had with military and veterans groups.

“What we'll try to do is create a lane out there on national security, get our fair share of social and fiscal conservatives, and try to be a problem solver.”

‘Starting to take notice’

The rising concern about the nation’s security at home and abroad could sway voters toward Graham, supporters say.

“If national security isn't the No. 1 issue facing voters, it probably should be,” said Columbia attorney Thad Myers, who also is the assistant adjutant general for the S.C. Air National Guard.

Graham has taken former U.S. Sen. Strom Thurmond’s place as the state’s top advocate for the military and national security, said Myers, a longtime Graham supporter.

Myers added Graham has done a lot for the National Guard, including getting it a seat on the Joint Chiefs of Staff. “I'd be surprised if he didn't have strong support from his fellow Guardsmen.”

But whether Graham’s efforts to reach out to military audiences will yield a surge of votes in the early primaries is unclear.

“Is it going to change the dynamics of the next presidential election? I don't know,” said Ron Dardis, a retired lieutenant general and former leader of the Iowa National Guard who hosted a meet-and-greet for Graham in Des Moines.

“(But) when you see surveys and see terrorism rising to the top, people are starting to take notice,” added Dardis, who met Graham when the South Carolinian was campaigning with former Iowa National Guard member Joni Ernst in her successful 2014 U.S. Senate campaign.

‘Well received’

Still, Graham is a second-tier candidate, said Juliana Bergeron, a GOP national committeewoman in New Hampshire.

Even that assessment may be generous.

Graham is a non-factor in Iowa and New Hampshire polling, where his name has not even been included among the more than a dozen GOP hopefuls.

In his home state, the senator finished fourth out of 14 GOP White House hopefuls in a recent Winthrop Poll of Republican voters. Only 7.6 percent of those surveyed said they would pick Graham out of the crowded GOP field, placing him behind Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker, former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush and U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas.

On the plus side, Graham has made good first impressions in the early primary states that he has visited, Republican leaders said.

“His self-deprecating humor was well received, and he was perceived as knowledgeable on issues,” added Iowa’s Gustoff. “People that disagreed with his position appreciated that he could articulate it.”

But building a network of supporters in states where other potential candidates have well worn paths will be a challenge for Graham.

In Iowa, for example, former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee and former U.S. Sen. Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania have been to “hundreds of campaign events,” building support, said Craig Robinson, an ex-Iowa GOP political director.

“They know people,” Robinson said, referring to Huckabee, who sought the GOP nomination in 2008, and Santorum, who ran in 2012.

In New Hampshire, Graham’s high-profile friendship with U.S. Sen. Kelly Ayotte could help him. Graham’s media profile also gives him pretty good name recognition in that state, Bergeron said.

Graham will be in new Hampshire this weekend. But other GOP candidates already have made repeated visits to the state, she said, citing Cruz and U.S. Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky.

Retail politics also is important to Iowa voters, who appreciate a candidate willing to “press the flesh” with voters, said Gustoff, the Iowa committee member.

“There's a saying in Iowa that we don't vote for a candidate unless we've had dinner with them three times.”

This story was originally published April 17, 2015 at 8:50 PM with the headline "Graham courts veterans, Guard as he weighs 2016."