Is it 2016 already? Yes, for the early-primary states

Labor Day weekend marks the end of summer — and the beginning of the presidential campaign season.

Think the 2016 hopefuls have spent enough time in South Carolina already? Well, watch over the next five months as 22 — or 23 perhaps? — candidates come in waves to stump and shake hands from Bluffton to Lexington to Greenville.

If the nomination process ended today, Democrat Hillary Clinton — her party’s long-time front-runner — would face Republican Donald Trump — yes, really — for the White House, based on current polling.

But it’s the first quarter of this ballgame.

The outcome will be guided by the outcome in three main early-voting states — Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina.

So let’s take a look at who’s leading — and who’s looking for help — in the first presidential primaries and caucus, next February.

Iowa

Republicans: Donald Trump leads the polls in all three major early-primary states, but his advantage is slimmest in Iowa. A solid win in Iowa, a state dominated by traditionalist voters, could boost the New York business mogul’s chances as he moves forward to states where he enjoys stronger support.

But Iowa has favored social conservatives in recent caucuses — Mike Huckabee in 2008 and Rick Santorum in 2012.

That makes the Hawkeye State vital for Scott Walker, the governor of neighboring Wisconsin and a values candidate who cannot afford to falter out of the gate. The son of a Baptist preacher has seen his poll numbers dip in the past month amid Trump’s surge, taking Walker from the lead to out of the top three.

Also looking for a shot of life out of Iowa is Ted Cruz, Trump’s closest ally in the field. Another candidate courting social conservatives, the Texas senator has risen to third in the Iowa polls.

Democrats: Hillary Clinton can start putting an end to the Bernie Sanders phenomenon with a strong showing in the state that derailed her 2008 presidential bid, when she finished third behind Barack Obama and John Edwards.

Sanders, the independent senator from Vermont, has been drawing large crowds and closing the gap with Clinton as questions linger about her use of a private email server while she was secretary of state.

Meanwhile, Vice President Joe Biden’s Iowa poll numbers are rising amid speculation that he will launch a 2016 run.

New Hampshire

Republicans: Jeb Bush will hope for traction in the early-primary state known for backing the GOP’s more mainstream candidates. The Granite State helped John McCain and Mitt Romney mount comebacks that led to their winning the GOP nominations in 2008 and 2012.

With or without a strong Trump challenge, Bush will need to win in New Hampshire after an expected struggle in Iowa. The former Florida governor could use a New Hampshire victory to build momentum toward South Carolina, where his family has enjoyed strong support over the years.

John Kasich, another more moderate candidate, could get a boost in New England. The Ohio governor is leading Bush in recent polls, though they both trail Trump. But Kasich could be a one-hit early-primary wonder. He sits 10th in the Iowa and S.C. polls.

New Hampshire also could be the where Carly Fiorina makes some noise. She’s fourth in polls. The question is whether the former Hewlett Packard boss can carry any momentum into the later contests.

Democrats: If Vermonter Sanders wants to stay in the conversation for the nomination, winning the state next door to his home is a must. He passed Clinton in the New Hampshire polls two weeks ago.

How long the talk about Sanders lasts after New Hampshire depends on Clinton looking like a lock in South Carolina. She does now.

South Carolina

Republicans: Few voters would have expected Ben Carson to reach second place in S.C. polls when the primary season heated up. Could the retired neurosurgeon be this year’s Newt Gingrich — the upstart former U.S. House speaker who upended the party favorite in the Palmetto State in 2012?

S.C. GOP primary voters seemingly crave political outsiders. Trump and Carson have the backing from nearly the half of likely S.C. primary voters in recent polls.

But 2016’s third vote could be where Marco Rubio needs to break out if he wants to make his mark on the race. The U.S. senator from Florida’s team includes S.C. political veterans, which should help. But he needs to get moving. Rubio is seventh in S.C. polling.

Democrats: Clinton holds a huge S.C. lead, but let’s go with a “what-if” here. If Biden enters the race, South Carolina likely will be where he could do the most early-primary damage.

Consider Biden’s ties in the state. He helped raise money for S.C. Democratic gubernatorial challenger Vincent Sheehen last year. He spoke at the state party’s big fundraiser a few years back. He flew to Columbia to tout a White House economic program last year. He vacations on Kiawah Island.

Some in the party, who already call Biden South Carolina’s third U.S. senator, really want a viable alternative to Clinton. Why not Joe?

This story was originally published September 5, 2015 at 7:57 PM.