S.C. GOP, Democrats have high stakes in February presidential primaries

In South Carolina, conservative evangelical Republicans dominate the manufacturing-rich Upstate. The tourism hot spots along the coast are magnets for affluent new residents, some libertarian leaning.

Meanwhile, the state’s rural, majority-black Democratic counties are shrinking, reminders of a now depressed agricultural economy that once flourished.

Palmetto State Republicans and Democrats both have something at stake six weeks from now during the state’s February presidential primaries.

Republicans are hoping to recover the party’s vaunted status as the GOP bellwether, predicting the party’s eventual presidential nominee. Flawless since the state’s first GOP primary in 1980, that reputation was tarnished in 2012, when Newt Gingrich – not Mitt Romney – won the state’s primary.

If South Carolina Republicans go rogue again on Feb. 20, picking an outlier, the state’s political prominence likely will fade as it “blends into the woodwork of other Southern states,” said Scott Buchanan, a political scientist at The Citadel.

At stake for Democrats is a chance to be relevant again, highlighting their dream of shaping a New South politically.

Already, South Carolina has shaped the Democratic presidential debate, as candidates weighed in after the racially motivated June slaying of nine African-Americans in a Charleston church and, subsequently, the removal of the Confederate flag from the State House grounds.

On Feb. 27, South Carolina’s Democratic presidential primary will provide the first true test of the candidates’ appeal to black voters after votes in Iowa and New Hampshire, states with far less diversity. More than half of South Carolina’s Democratic voters are black, a key group of party supporters across the South.

The GOP takes control

Fifty years ago, the tables were turned.

Conservative Democrats controlled South Carolina. Then, those voters fled the civil-rights party for the GOP.

After years of obscurity and recruiting, Republicans have controlled the S.C. Legislature since 2000, the governor’s office since 2002 and all other statewide offices since 2010.

Over the years, the GOP also has ruptured internally. Now, the interests of Christian conservatives and moderate, Chamber-of-Commerce Republicans who helped build the party are clashing with anti-establishment Libertarian and Tea Party voters who have pushed the party right.

But Republican National Committeeman Glenn McCall of Rock Hill predicts 2016 will be different. McCall says more evangelical and moderate conservatives – “who were on the sidelines in the past” – will be engaged in the Feb. 20 GOP primary.

With their participation, McCall predicts, S.C. GOP “voters will do the right thing and pick the eventual nominee.” But no matter who the state picks, he added, “We’re going to have to fight to retain the first-in-the-South (primary) position for 2020.”

Thus far, however, polls suggest otherwise. Donald Trump has led every S.C. GOP poll since July except one, when fellow non-politician Ben Carson led.

In part, that is because South Carolina’s changing demographics are changing its politics.

South Carolina has seen a stream of newcomers settling in the coastal communities that stretch from Myrtle Beach to Charleston to Beaufort and Hilton Head.

The socially conservative Upstate and the Piedmont region south of Charlotte also have seen a political shift because of newcomers.

“The state is still beet dark-red,” said The Citadel’s Buchanan. But “people moving into the state ... are not as socially conservative as what native South Carolinians tend to be.”

“Those voters tend to be older, more conservative in terms of economics, and they also tend to come from the Northeast and upper Midwest, where social conservatism is not a big deal,” he said.

Many of these new S.C. Republicans lean more fiscally conservative, embracing libertarian and Tea Party themes.

Buchanan cited U.S. Rep. John Spratt’s 2010 loss to Tea Party-backed Mick Mulvaney as evidence of that political shift. Spratt, a conservative Democrat, had held office for 28 years. When he lost his congressional seat, U.S. Rep. Jim Clyburn of Columbia became South Carolina’s only Democrat in Congress, representing a heavily gerrymandered, African-American district.

Democrats are doing something right

S.C. Democratic Party chairman Jaime Harrison said some fast-growing parts of the state also are promising for the state’s minority party.

“No named Republicans ran for mayor (of Charleston), probably South Carolina’s most popular city, most well-known city,” Harrison said of the recent race to succeed Democratic Mayor Joe Riley in the Holy City. “That’s a tremendous indicator that Democrats are doing something right down there.”

Charleston, which Democratic President Barack Obama won in the 2008 and 2012 general elections, is a top international tourist destination, drawing more affluent residents from out of state.

Still, S.C. Democrats struggle to maintain relevancy. Strong candidates for statewide office have eluded the party, giving way to embarrassments.

In 2010, an unknown, unemployed Army veteran named Alvin Greene won the Democratic nomination for U.S. Senate, then lost to Republican U.S. Sen. Jim DeMint after Democrats considered and rejected throwing Greene off the ballot.

Democrats also suffered huge losses in the state’s 2014 midterm elections with GOP victory margins widening from four years earlier.

The S.C. Democratic Party’s first African-American chairman, Harrison has launched a statewide effort to recruit young talent into the party, providing them with guidance on how to run for office or manage campaigns.

February’s contest gives the state party a chance to shine a national spotlight on South Carolina, he said.

Winning big in the state’s Democratic primary in 2008 propelled then-U.S. Sen. Barack Obama to his party’s nomination, Harrison said. “Had Obama not won South Carolina in 2008, I don’t think he would be president right now.”

But that was 2008, when Obama’s historic candidacy led to record voter turnout.

Democratic front-runner Hillary Clinton has led every S.C. poll this year by margins of 23 percentage points to 70 percentage points, largely on the basis of black support.

Whether the Democratic presidential candidates can drum up the same enthusiasm in 2016 will be a test of the party’s strength, The Citadel’s Buchanan said.

“Are black voters as excited about the Democratic nominee as they were in 2008 and 2012?” Buchanan said. “That’s a big question that remains to be answered.”