FIRST VOTES CAST: Cruz hopes to stop Trump sweep of early states

Iowa is where voters will learn if anyone can stop front-runner Donald Trump from running the table in early GOP voting. The billionaire New York developer is opening up a lead over U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas in what is February’s tightest race.

What the polls say: Trump has led Cruz by 7-8 percentage points in recent polls. Courting Iowa’s evangelical voters, Cruz led many polls in December. Then, Trump started questioning Cruz’s Canadian birth and failure to disclose Wall Street loans, used to pay for his Senate run. U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida is lurking in third in Iowa, slowly gaining on Cruz.

Who must win? Cruz. The senator has risen to second in New Hampshire, passing establishment candidates who normally perform well in that state. Still, Cruz trails Trump by 19 percentage points in the Granite State. And in South Carolina, Cruz trails Trump by 16 percentage points. Iowa is Cruz’s best hope to avoid a Trump sweep of the early states. A win should give the senator a surge of support in South Carolina and nine other states, where evangelicals make up the majority of GOP voters, that vote before March 15.

What’s key: For Cruz, hoping as many evangelical voters show up at the caucuses as possible. Evangelicals account for 60 percent of Iowa voters, and Cruz holds a slight lead over Trump among those very religious voters. If evangelicals don’t come out, Trump looks like the winner. Trump also could win if a rush of new voters, attracted to his campaign, overwhelms the caucuses.

What does it mean for SC? As in Iowa, roughly 6-in-10 S.C. GOP voters describe themselves as evangelicals. But success in the Hawkeye State does not always translate into the Palmetto State. The last two Iowa winners, Rick Santorum and Mike Huckabee, failed to win in South Carolina. George W. Bush, in 2010, was the last Iowa winner to also win South Carolina. Bush also is the last GOP nominee to win Iowa.

Andrew Shain