How SC race shaping up ahead of New Hampshire

South Carolina soon will get the spotlight in the 2016 Republican presidential campaign.

For now, attention is on New Hampshire, which holds the next primary on Tuesday. Seven candidates vie at 8 p.m. Saturday in debate on ABC in Manchester, N.H. where GOP front-runner Donald Trump returns to the stage after skipping the last debate in Iowa.

The debate could help shape the South Carolina race on Feb. 20, which, at the moment, looks like a four-way battle with Trump, U.S. Sens. Ted Cruz of Texas and Marco Rubio of Florida and former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush.

A couple of other candidates could be factors — one trying to stay toward the top of field, former Maryland neurosurgeon Ben Carson, and another trying to build support, Ohio Gov. John Kasich.

After finishing second in Iowa, Trump continues to hold a large lead in polls for New Hampshire’s Tuesday primary. The New York billionaire developers also remains the favorite in South Carolina’s primary.

Trump has ruled S.C. polls since the heat of the summer.

He’s performing well from moderates to evangelicals. Trump continues to spread his S.C. stops to make sure he’s visiting a wide set of constituencies across the state. A win in New Hampshire should solidify his top standing in South Carolina.

Cruz and Rubio are jockeying for second and third place in both states.

Cruz won in Iowa and is looking for a top-three finish in New Hampshire, where social conservatives usually do not perform as well. He’s a solid second in South Carolina, where like Iowa 60 percent of GOP voters consider themselves evangelical Christians.

The campaign appears to be using the same operation to target voters that worked in Iowa. Most of his S.C. contributions have come from the Lowcountry, a region usually more identified with supporting establishment and libertarian candidates.

Rubio’s good showing in Iowa, close to finishing in second place, has pushed him into second in New Hampshire. He’s third in South Carolina just ahead of Bush but a good showing in New Hampshire could help in the following primaries. His campaign also has bolstered staff in South Carolina as part of a late push.

Bush will make a stand in South Carolina, where his father and brother won primaries en route to the White House. The campaign, entrenched in the state for months, will double the number of full time staff and consultants after New Hampshire.

Bush has won the backing of much of the S.C. GOP establishment, especially after home state U.S. Sen. Lindsey Graham left the race. He might not have raised the most money in South Carolina, but he’s receiving the highest average contribution. Bush could use exceeding expectations in New Hampshire.

Kasich, who is fourth in polls in New Hampshire where candidates in the establishment lane perform better, is trying to make some inroads in South Carolina.

Kasich has already announced plans to visit South Carolina next week and a pro-Kasich political-action committee has touted a growing ground game in the state.

But he has not received much public traction in South Carolina.

Kasich has never received never more than 4 percent of support in S.C. polls and stands at 2 percent in seventh place. Kasich has spent the second-fewest number of days in the state among the eight top active GOP candidates.

Carson has been as high as second in South Carolina but has fallen to fifth -- mimicking his results nationally. He has raised the most money in the Palmetto State among active candidates.

He finished fourth in Iowa but is not expected to fare well in New Hampshire. Carson, a non-politician appealing to social conservatives, could use a good showing in South Carolina.

This story was originally published February 6, 2016 at 12:54 PM.