Being the New Hampshire runner-up could be the prize before GOP race moves to SC

The nine-candidate GOP field likely will thin after voting Tuesday in New Hampshire, clearing the path for the front-runners to head into the S.C. GOP primary on Feb. 20.

What the polls say: Donald Trump holds a 16-percentage-point lead, having led 73 straight New Hampshire polls — almost all by double digits. Bunched up behind the New York billionaire are U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida, Ohio Gov. John Kasich, U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas and former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush.

Who must win? Trump. After a second in Iowa, a New Hampshire victory would show Trump can close the deal in a state where he has led. Being the New Hampshire runner-up could be viewed as a win for the other candidates. Kasich and Bush need the boost most.

What’s key: To top expectations, Rubio and Cruz need support from voters in areas nearest Boston, as well as evangelicals. Rubio could use a push from younger and women voters. Cruz wants a good showing from voters who consider themselves very conservative. Kasich and Bush eye moderates and older voters.

What does it mean for S.C.? New Hampshire has picked the same winner as South Carolina in four of the seven past competitive GOP primaries, but only one of the past four. Trump holds 16-point advantage in South Carolina over Cruz, leading among a cross section of voters — from evangelicals to moderates.

Andrew Shain

This story was originally published February 8, 2016 at 7:10 PM with the headline "Being the New Hampshire runner-up could be the prize before GOP race moves to SC."