Clinton eyes big win in South Carolina

Hillary Clinton seems set for redemption in South Carolina eight years after a crushing defeat that set back her first run for the White House.

The former secretary of state leads U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders in Saturday’s Palmetto State Democratic primary by 27 percentage points, according to an average of recent polls.

Faced with that deficit, the Vermont independent chose to campaign in other states Wednesday and Thursday in anticipation of next week’s “Super Tuesday” primaries and other races in March.

He will not hold a primary night event in South Carolina after the polls close Saturday, choosing instead to attend a rally in Minnesota.

Clinton has won two of the first three contests. Sanders won in New Hampshire, which neighbors his home state.

One poll puts @HillaryClinton 27 points ahead of @BernieSanders in #SC. Will Sanders close the gap (or win) today?

— Jeff Kidd (@insidepages) February 27, 2016

Here’s a look at the primary that could help shape the rest of the Democratic race:

What’s at stake?

Hillary Clinton: She needs a big win in South Carolina, showing off her strength with African-American voters. South Carolina is the first primary state with a large black voting population. A victory exceeding Clinton’s gaudy poll numbers would help her start a push to close the Democratic race by March 15, when half of the elected delegates will have been decided. While Super Tuesday comes just three days after South Carolina, Clinton has continued to campaign in the state.

Bernie Sanders: He could help his cause by cutting into Clinton’s pre-primary lead. Getting the margin of Clinton’s win down to 10 percentage points or less would be a huge plus for Sanders as he campaigns in the March primary states. Narrowing Clinton’s S.C. lead likely will require a huge wave of younger voters, attracted to Sanders’ progressive message. Sanders could use that momentum to try and turn around Clinton’s leads in March primary states.

Keys

Clinton: Win the African-American vote and show strength with men and young voters, who have favored Sanders.

Sanders: Hope to get more African-American support than expected and get a big turnout from younger voters.

Top S.C. endorsements

Clinton: Received endorsements from U.S. Rep. Jim Clyburn, the third-ranking Democrat in the House, former Govs. Dick Riley and Jim Hodges and nearly 30 state lawmakers.

Sanders: Has backing from five African-American state representatives.

Recent S.C Democratic primary history

In 2008, then-U.S. Sen. Barack Obama, riding huge support from African-American voters, trounced Clinton by 55 percent to 28 percent. Former U.S. Sen. John Edwards of North Carolina, a Seneca native, received 18 percent of the vote.

Turnout

Turnout is not expected to reach 2008 levels, when more than 530,000 votes were cast, a spike of 82 percent over four years earlier. Instead, between 350,000 and 400,000 voters are expected.

That would be about half of the 742,000 votes cast in the Republican primary a week earlier.

Delegates

53 delegates to the Democratic convention that will nominate a candidate for president are up for grabs Saturday.

The top finisher statewide will get 18 delegates.

The other 35 delegates are awarded proportionately, based on the voting in each of the state’s seven congressional districts. A candidate must get 15 percent of the vote in a district to win any delegates. The number of delegates available varies from district to district. Districts 1, 2, 5 and 7 get five delegates each; District 3 gets three; District 4 gets four; and District 6 gets eight.

South Carolina also has six superdelegates who can vote for any candidate. Four have committed to Clinton. Two are neutral thus far.

The delegate race thus far

After Iowa, New Hampshire and Nevada, Clinton is leading with 505 delegates, including superdelegates, to Sanders’ 71, according to the Associated Press. Without superdelegates, they are tied at 51.

Winning the nomination requires 2,382 delegates.

This story was originally published February 26, 2016 at 5:17 PM.