Hurricane threat to SC greater in 2023 than first thought despite El Niño, new forecast shows
South Carolina could have a harsher hurricane season this year than previously predicted.
Colorado State University researchers recently released an updated forecast that predicts a more active Atlantic hurricane season in 2023 then what they and other experts previously reported. The hurricane season is expected now to be more active than average with 18 storms, even with El Niño.
The Atlantic hurricane season started June 1 and ends Nov. 30.
Last year the Atlantic hurricane season had 14 named storms, according to NOAA. The 2022 season included Hurricane Ian, which, after plowing through Florida, landed around Georgetown, S.C. in September with sustained winds of 85 mph, caused coastal flood damage and destroyed several large piers near Myrtle Beach.
Hurricane prediction breakdown
The CSU updated forecast calls for 18 storms, nine of which are expected to become hurricanes. Of those hurricanes, four are predicted to reach at least Category 3 status.
The update predicts three more storms, two more hurricanes and one more major hurricane than CSU’s earlier forecast. The older forecast predicted a slightly below-average hurricane season. The latest forecast takes into account the four storms that have happened this season.
Arlene, Bret and Cindy formed in June. There was also an unnamed subtropical storm that developed in January, which the National Hurricane Center retroactively upgraded in May.
Other predictions
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicted earlier this year that hurricane season would be relatively normal in 2023 — with between 12 and 17 storms. The forecast calls for a 40% chance of a near-normal season, a 30% chance of an above-normal season and a 30% chance of a below-normal season.
NOAA is forecasting with 70% confidence of 12 to 17 total named storms with winds of 39 mph or higher. And of those, five to nine of them could become hurricanes with winds of 74 mph or higher. There could also be one to four major hurricanes between Category 3 and 5, with winds of 111 mph or higher.
El Niño impact
The Atlantic hurricane season was previously expected to be less active than recent years, in part because of the arrival of El Niño, which has been known to suppress Atlantic hurricane activity. NOAA had warned in its earlier forecast that El Niño’s possible influence could be offset by favorable conditions local to the tropical Atlantic Basin.
“While we continue to anticipate a robust El Niño for the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season, most of the tropical and subtropical Atlantic now has record warm sea surface temperatures,” a CSU statement reads. “El Niño increases vertical wind shear in the Caribbean and tropical Atlantic, but the extreme anomalous warmth in the tropical and subtropical Atlantic may counteract some of the typical El Niño-driven increase in vertical wind shear. The probability of U.S. major hurricane landfall is estimated to be above the long-period average.”
