A ‘Super El Niño’ may be on the way now, new NOAA report says. What that means for SC weather
There is a significant chance of El Niño becoming historically strong, possibly bringing more rain and colder temperatures to South Carolina this winter, a new weather report shows.
According to a Thursday update from the NOAA Climate Prediction Center, there is now a 54% chance of a historically strong — sometimes referred to as ‘super’ — El Niño during the winter season through January.
“An event of this strength would potentially be in the top five of El Niño events since 1950,” NOAA states.
However, NOAA adds that while strong El Niño events increase the chances of El Niño-related climate anomalies like more rain, that does not mean those impacts will happen in all locations or be of strong intensity.
What is El Niño?
El Niño is a climate pattern in the Pacific Ocean that can affect weather worldwide, NOAA states. During El Niño, trade winds weaken and warm water is pushed east toward the west coast of the U.S.
Officials declared in June that El Niño had begun and the weather phenomenon has gained strength ever since.
What a Super El Niño could mean for SC
According to the National Weather Service, a stronger El Niño could cause more rainfall and colder temperatures than average during winter in South Carolina and the rest of the Southeast.
The strongest El Niño on record occurred during late 1997 through early 1998, according to the S.C. Department of Natural Resources.
“This El Niño was responsible for the very wet conditions in the Southeast including the second wettest winter on record for South Carolina,” DNR states.
DNR adds that the very wet fall of 2002 and winter 2003 that nearly completely alleviated the previous four-year drought in just five months corresponded with the return of El Niño.
The South Carolina State Climatology Office warns that severe El Niño events are associated with “more frozen precipitation ice storms/snow storms.” It also warns of the higher possibility of coastal erosion and flooding.
NOAA climate data from 1959-2023 shows that snowfall during moderate-to-strong El Niño events like the one expected this winter have tended to generate more snow.
El Niño may be all bark
Still, the Weather Channel, like NOAA, notes there is also a good chance El Niño, even a ‘super’ one, won’t have such significant impacts on South Carolina or other areas of the U.S. this year. The Weather Channel states that the last two strong El Niños proved this by having very different outcomes than expected.
“Winter 2009-10, for example, was much colder than expected in the U.S. during a strong El Niño winter,” the Weather Channel states. “And there are indications this strong El Niño may be behaving like 2009-10, at least initially.”
The latest data shows that the current El Niño is less like the super El Niños of 2015-16 and of 1997-98, the Weather Channel adds.
