Will El Niño threaten extra rain and colder temps in SC much longer in 2024? What NWS predicts now
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South Carolinians will likely have to put up with El Niño weather through mid-spring, the latest forecasts show.
The strong El Niño conditions that have increased chances of rain and cold weather in South Carolina and the rest of the Southeast for months are expected to end as soon as April, according to the National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center’s latest outlook released Thursday.
“Some state-of the-art dynamical climate models suggest a transition to ENSO-neutral as soon as March-May 2024. The forecast team, however, delays this timing and strongly favors a transition to ENSO-neutral in April-June 2024,” the Climate Prediction Center states.
El Niño in SC
According to the latest update, a strong El Niño remains in place for January and there is a 73% chance it will end in the April to June period, the Climate Center states.
According to the National Weather Service, stronger El Niños have been known to cause more rainfall and colder temperatures than average during winter in South Carolina and the rest of the Southeast.
The strongest El Niño on record occurred during late 1997 through early 1998, according to the S.C. Department of Natural Resources.
“This El Niño was responsible for the very wet conditions in the Southeast including the second wettest winter on record for South Carolina,” DNR states.
However, the Climate Center has noted that while strong El Niño events increase the chances of El Niño-related climate anomalies like more rain, that does not mean those impacts will happen in all locations or be of strong intensity.
What is El Niño?
El Niño is a climate pattern in the Pacific Ocean that can affect weather worldwide, NOAA states. During El Niño, trade winds weaken and warm water is pushed east toward the west coast of the U.S.
Officials declared in June that El Niño had begun and the weather phenomenon has gained strength ever since.
SC winter weather forecast
The Climate Prediction Center expects a 33% to 40% chance of near normal temperatures for much of the Midlands and the Lowcountry in South Carolina through March. It also expects equal chances of normal temperatures for the Upstate.
Rain chances for South Carolina are more varied.
The center predicts a 50% to 60% chance of likely above average rainfall for much of the Midlands and Pee Dee region, but only a 40% to 50% of leaning above average rainfall for the Upstate from January through March. However, most of the coastal region of the state can expect an 80% to 90% of likely above average rainfall.
This story was originally published January 13, 2024 at 6:00 AM.
