Will SC face more hurricanes in 2024? What upcoming La Niña may mean for state weather, NWS warns
South Carolina may have a drier summer and a more active hurricane season this year because of La Niña, weather experts say.
The National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center has issued a La Niña watch for later this year, following a weakening El Niño. The El Niño event, which began in June 2023 and peaked in January, brought the chance of more rain than usual to the state and the Southeast.
According to the NWS alert released Thursday, there is a 79% chance El Niño will transition to a neutral state between April and June. There is then a 55% chance of a La Niña developing from June to August.
What is La Niña
La Niña is the opposite of El Niño. Trade winds are even stronger than usual during La Niña events, pushing warm water toward Asia. Off the west coast of the U.S., upwelling increases, bringing cold, nutrient-rich water to the surface. These cold waters in the Pacific push the jet stream northward.
La Niña impact on SC
What does the change to the jet stream mean? Basically, it tends to trigger drought conditions in the southern U.S. However, that is not always the case for South Carolina.
According to some researchers, 10 of 13 La Niña events examined showed below normal precipitation for parts of the Gulf of Mexico regions. However, the area including South Carolina showed no statistical difference. Still, researchers have attributed the 1998-2002 Southeast drought to La Niña.
Hurricanes
La Niña is known to enhance hurricane activity in the Atlantic basin, according to NOAA. Hurricane season for South Carolina is set to start June 1 and last through November.
“Over the Atlantic basin, the anomalous upper-level ridge is associated with weaker upper- and lower- level winds, both of which reduce the vertical wind shear and increase hurricane activity,” NOAA states. “La Niña also favors increased Atlantic hurricane activity by decreasing the amount of sinking motion and decreasing the atmospheric stability.”
This story was originally published February 10, 2024 at 6:00 AM.
