SC on path to more active hurricane season in 2024 after new forecast. Here’s why
The chances of a more active hurricane season this year have grown for South Carolina, a new forecast shows.
The National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center recently issued an updated forecast for La Niña, upping the chances of the weather pattern developing this summer, following the weakening of El Niño. The formation of a La Niña can contribute to the severity of Atlantic hurricane seasons, as well as lead to drier summers for South Carolina.
According to the latest forecast, there is a 62% chance of a La Niña developing between June and August — greater than the 55% chance predicted a month ago.
Hurricane season for South Carolina is set to start June 1 and last through November.
What is La Niña
La Niña is the opposite of El Niño. Trade winds are even stronger than usual during La Niña events, pushing warm water toward Asia. Off the west coast of the U.S., upwelling increases, bringing cold, nutrient-rich water to the surface. These cold waters in the Pacific push the jet stream northward.
What does La Niña mean for hurricane season?
La Niña is known to enhance hurricane activity in the Atlantic basin, according to NOAA.
Much of the impact is due to La Niña’s effects on wind shear and atmospheric conditions over the Atlantic. There is a reduction in wind shear in the tropics when La Niña occurs, which can encourage hurricane development. Wind shear means a change in wind speed and direction with height in the atmosphere.
La Niña also favors greater hurricane activity by decreasing atmospheric stability and reducing the amount of sinking motion in the atmosphere.
Other La Niña weather impacts
La Niña’s effects tend to trigger drought conditions in the southern U.S. However, that is not always the case.
According to some researchers, 10 of 13 La Niña events examined showed below normal precipitation for parts of the Gulf of Mexico regions, however, the area including South Carolina showed no statistical difference. Still, researchers have attributed the 1998-2002 Southeast drought to La Niña.
La Niña can also contribute to warmer than usual temperatures in the Southeast during winter months.
