Strengthening El Niño changing hurricane forecasts for 2026. Here’s what SC can expect now
The Atlantic hurricane season is ongoing, and South Carolinians should always be prepared for tropical storm development until the season is over.
One bad storm can devastate someone’s property, but according to AccuWeather’s latest forecast, there should be a little less to worry about this year.
An ongoing climate event is more likely to impair tropical development than previously thought, causing AccuWeather meteorologists to make changes to their original forecast.
Here’s how many storms are now predicted to form in this year’s hurricane season:
How many storms are now predicted this season?
AccuWeather originally predicted back in March that between 11 and 16 named storms would form during the Atlantic Hurricane season, but they have since shifted that range.
Their weather experts are now predicting a small decrease in the number of named storms. They say people should now expect at least 8 tropical storms this year, but it’s unlikely more than 14 will form.
The forecasted number of hurricanes hasn’t changed since AccuWeather’s initial prediction, and neither has their estimate on storms that will directly impact the U.S. Here’s what else is expected this year:
- Hurricanes predicted: 4-7
- Major hurricanes: 2-4
- Direct U.S. impact: 3-5
What’s different from previous years?
If the current forecast is correct, it’s likely that there will be fewer storms and hurricanes this season, year-over-year.
According to AccuWeather, there were 14 named storms, five hurricanes, four major hurricanes and four storms that directly impacted the U.S. during last year’s Atlantic hurricane season.
Between 1991 and 2020, there has been an average of 14 named storms, seven hurricanes, three major hurricanes and four storms that directly impact the U.S.
Why did the predicted number of named storms decrease?
The primary driver of this change is due to quickly developing El Niño conditions, according to AccuWeather.
El Niño, which means “Little Boy” in Spanish, is a natural climate event that typically occurs every two to seven years. It’s characterized by the warming of sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific, which disrupts normal winds and pushes warm water eastward toward the west coast of the Americas.
The warming waters impact weather across the world, causing areas in the northern U.S. and Canada to be drier and warmer than usual. But in the U.S. Gulf Coast and Southeast, these periods are wetter than usual and have increased flooding.
If the conditions are intense, some scientists refer to the weather pattern as a ‘super’ El Niño, often when sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean rise to 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit above average for several months. They’re the same as a standard El Niño but are much rarer, and they have a stronger impact on the weather.
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) said in a recent statement that there’s a very good chance this El Niño will strengthen, and will strongly influence global weather patterns.
El Niño also inhibits tropical storm development, and due to its 70% chance of turning into a ‘super’ El Niño, AccuWeather updated its tropical storm forecast to accommodate El Niño’s strengthening.
“El Niño conditions have always been the driver for why we’re expecting numbers near or below the historical average this year,” said Alex DaSilva, AccuWeather lead hurricane expert. “The stronger the El Niño gets, the fewer named storms we’re likely to get.”