Nicole forecast to hit Midlands with heavy rain, gusty winds and possible tornadoes

The closer Tropical Storm Nicole gets to making landfall in the U.S., the more likely it is to affect the Columbia area.

The forecast is getting clearer, and there’s greater confidence that the storm will bring severe weather to the Midlands, the National Weather Service said during a Wednesday morning briefing.

The severe weather includes heavy rain — which could cause flooding — as well as powerful wind gusts and possible tornadoes, according to the briefing.

Tropical Storm Nicole is still expected to move across the Columbia area Thursday afternoon through Friday, and winds and showers will steadily pick up by Thursday night, according to the National Weather Service.

Winds are expected to affect the Midlands before the center of the storm hits the area, and a Lake Wind Advisory was issued through 7 p.m. Wednesday, the National Weather Service said.

As of Wednesday morning, no other warnings, watches or advisories were issued for the Columbia area. That could change as the storm moves closer.

Wind gusts will continue to pick up strength on Thursday afternoon, and could move as fast as 40 mph, according to the briefing. The wind will continue to be a threat through Friday night, the National Weather Service said.

Should Nicole’s wind speeds move faster than 39 mph when it hits the Midlands, it would be a tropical storm. Moving slower would classify Nicole as a tropical depression.

There is also an increasing likelihood of tornadoes, according to the briefing. While the storm’s track has shifted more to the west, tornadoes are still more likely to form in the eastern portion of the Midlands and closer to the South Carolina coast, the National Weather Service said.

Powerful winds and tornadoes could cause considerable damage to trees and branches, in addition to mobile homes, roofs and outbuildings. Vehicles would also be under siege in the case of a tornado.

Damage to trees and branches creates the possibility of downed power lines and outages.

Nicole is also forecast to dump anywhere from 1-3 inches of rain in the Midlands, according to the briefing. Localized amounts could be higher, and there is a 90% chance of rain from Thursday night through Friday, the forecast shows.

Most of the rain will fall in waves of showers late Thursday through Friday morning, the National Weather Service said.

There is a slight risk of flooding rains, according to the briefing.

Once the storm passes through the Midlands, conditions are expected to be sunny and dry through the weekend, the forecast shows. The weather will be cooler, with high temperatures expected to reach in the 50s Sunday, Monday and Tuesday, according to the forecast.

As of 7 a.m. Wednesday, the storm was moving west at 13 mph toward the Bahamas and Florida and had maximum sustained winds of 70 mph, according to the National Hurricane Center. The center of Nicole — which has tropical-storm-force winds extending 460 miles outward — is expected to move across Florida on Thursday and then make a turn to the north toward the Carolinas, the National Hurricane Center said.

Nicole is the 14^th named storm of 2022 and could become the second to hit the Columbia area since the remnants of Hurricane Ian doused the Midlands at the beginning of October.

Nicole could become just the fifth tropical storm or hurricane to affect the Midlands in November since 1850, according to the National Weather Service. The most recent was Eta in 2020, which was well offshore but still brought heavy rain and flooding to the Carolinas, the National Weather Service said.

This story was originally published November 9, 2022 at 9:32 AM.

Noah Feit

The State

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Noah Feit is a Real Time reporter with The State focused on breaking news, public safety and trending news. The award-winning journalist has worked for multiple newspapers since starting his career in 1999. Support my work with a digital subscription