Why does returning to normal after coronavirus lockdown have to be a fight?

In 2020 America, we should probably have expected that the eagerly-awaited prospect of a return to economic activity after the nationwide coronavirus lockdown would be greeted not with cheers but with widespread strife.

Understandably, some want their jobs and livelihoods back ASAP, not to mention everyone who simply hopes to retrieve newly-cherished freedoms such as strolls in the park. And they see local politicians citing public health to exert questionable powers to enforce social distancing and prohibit even small gatherings, once a sacred liberty in this country.

Others, including majorities in some national polls, are not sure our society should move so quickly to restore an ill-defined normalcy, whatever that constitutes in the minds of 328 million people. Understandably, they’ve been infected by the virus of fear, another affliction that’s swept the land as history’s 59th presidential general election cycle moves toward summer. Fears have fueled some of history’s most disastrous election results.

In California, the first warm weekend weather of spring prompted thousands of citizens and families to release themselves from the shutdown on their own recognizance and enjoy the sun and sandy beaches they pay such high taxes to live by. The reaction of Emperor Gavin Newsom was to close every inch of the state’s enormous 840-mile coastline because, social distancing. That, in turn, ignited defiant protesters to assemble closer than 6 feet in numerous communities.

In New York City, thousands of Orthodox Jews, having coordinated with police, gathered in the streets for the funeral of a prominent rabbi. Reich Chancellor Bill de Blasio declared: “My message to the Jewish community, and all communities, is this simple: The time for warnings has passed. I have instructed the NYPD to proceed immediately to summons or even arrest those who gather in large groups.”

Police in Brooklyn issued summons to people walking on the sidewalk. Days later, officers arrested a group of rabbis, sitting six feet apart in a synagogue, studying.

Oregon’s Democratic governor extended her stay-at-home order into July. Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, also a Democrat, extended her statewide stay-at-home order to mid-May, prompting protesters to pack the Capitol lawn with signs saying “Free Michigan.” One group, some carrying firearms, filed into the Capitol building where legislators were considering ways to curb the emergency powers of Whitmer, who happens to be co-chair of Joe Biden’s national campaign.

In Washington, the GOP-controlled Senate set a resumption of proceedings this week, while the Democratic House under Speaker Nancy Pelosi extended its break well into May. President Donald Trump said he would resume travels outside of Washington, D.C., as Vice President Mike Pence already has.

Biden advisers fretted to reporters that they want to get their 77-year-old boss out of his Delaware basement to resume some kind of campaigning beyond muddled media interviews on Skype. But the truth is for most of this primary season, they’ve kept the mumble-mouthed Biden on such a sparse schedule that former Obama adviser David Axelrod observed the ex-vice president was in the Candidate Protection Program.

It was probably inevitable that the initial “we’re all going to die” pandemic panic would decline as two realities set in. One, while the 69,000 estimated coronavirus deaths so far will surely grow in the coming weeks, that number is currently and will likely remain a relatively small fraction (11%), for instance, of predicted U.S. cancer deaths for 2020.

Aspiring hermits might enjoy the lockdown. But two, as the terrifying reality of the shutdown’s vast economic devastation increased, including more than 30 million new unemployment claims, the danger of infection receded for many Americans with bills coming due for payment.

Consumer spending, which accounts for around 70% of GDP, has plunged nearly 8% already. In the past six weeks alone, nearly 19% of the entire U.S. labor force has been laid off or furloughed. And that, counterintuitively, includes thousands of health care workers idled by the cessation of all elective procedures.

Until the virus immigrated, Trump was riding a booming economy, thanks to tax cuts and deregulation. Safe to say in his reelection year, Trump and his staff within earshot are acutely aware of the political devastation that accompanies such economic devastation. Americans tend to stick with incumbent elected presidents. In modern times, only two such men lost — Jimmy Carter and George H.W. Bush — with both defeats tied to tough economic times.

Recent early national polls, assuming Biden will be the nominee, find the Democrat leading the Republican incumbent by an average of six points. But wait. At this same point in 2016, Trump trailed Hillary Clinton by more than seven points. She still can’t accept how much that changed in the ensuing six months.

About 30 state governments are moving to various degrees to ease restrictions, including Texas, the second-largest state economy and No. 10 in the world.

Revealingly, those states moving to ease restrictions are mainly in the southeast and, down a tier, largely the middle third of the country. They’re governed by Republicans. Those maintaining more severe restrictions for now are mainly along the coasts and are run by Democrats.

But these days that’s probably just a coincidence, don’t you think?

This story was originally published May 5, 2020 at 6:00 AM with the headline "Why does returning to normal after coronavirus lockdown have to be a fight?."