Why Trump’s vow to end mail-in ballots will hurt Republicans | Opinion

Last week, President Donald Trump vowed to “lead a movement” to end mail-in voting, falsely claiming the U.S. was the only country to do it when it is one of 33 and far overstating the U.S. government’s role in elections run by state and local governments.

The Constitution gives him no such power. The elections clause is crystal clear: States set “the times, places and manner” of their own elections. Congress has a role, but only as a referee when fairness is at stake — as with the Voting Rights Act of 1965. Even if Trump pursues changes with Congress, the courts are likely to block attempts to federalize election procedures.

Truth is, Trump doesn’t need that authority. Once mid-decade redistricting locks in gerrymandered maps, as in Texas, Republican legislatures will happily do his bidding — moving to restrict or even ban mail-in voting. Not to secure elections, but to secure their maps.

Three in 10 Americans used mail-in ballots in the 2024 election, down from a high of 4 in 10 in the COVID-era 2020 election, with Democrats generally outpacing Republicans in its use but with a Republican edge in the key 2024 swing states of North Carolina and Arizona.

Now, rather than invest the resources needed to compete, Trump wants to outlaw the tool. It’s like NFL teams demanding the league ban the Philadelphia Eagles’ “Tush Push” because they can’t stop it. This is the swamp at its worst — rig the system, tip the scales and call it “integrity.”

That doesn’t mean mail-in voting isn’t being abused. Far from it.

We’ve seen serious problems: a postal worker in New Jersey dumped ballots into the trash; thieves in Orlando used a stolen U.S. Postal Service master key to snatch ballots and toss them in a storm drain; ballots were intercepted and fraudulently submitted in Colorado’s Mesa County.

And those are just a few of the cases we know about.

Blaming mail-in voting for the problem is like blaming the gun for a shooting. It’s lazy. It’s sloppy. It’s the exact same logic Democrats use when they go after the Second Amendment. Worse still, the endless, erroneous sideshow of “stolen election” talk makes it almost impossible to have serious conversations about election integrity or ways to actually fix the system.

That’s probably by design. Trump’s crusade against mail-in voting is not about fraud — it’s always been about the political benefits. False tales of stolen elections only serve to poison trust in our institutions and foster a belief in a rigged system. It’s a political boogeyman crafted to keep Trump at the center of the outrage machine while raking in campaign cash by the truckload.

The proof is right in front of us. Trump won Pennsylvania in 2024 because his campaign embraced mail-in ballots, and because Republicans spent $16 million promoting the method, turning out low-propensity voters who otherwise might have skipped the election. The strategy was so effective that David McCormick narrowly unseated Democratic senator Bob Casey, and Republicans swept the state’s three most competitive House races.

So, while red states will likely rush to strip away mail-in voting, blue states will expand access, encourage early voting, and lean on mail-in ballots to juice turnout, cementing Democratic dominance in urban and suburban strongholds while deepening the red state/blue state divide.

And that’s where Trump’s strategy will hurt Republicans.

In New Jersey, GOP candidate Jack Ciattarelli is in a dog fight for governor. By demonizing mail-in voting, Trump risks discouraging Republicans from using it. That hands Democrat Mikie Sherrill an early advantage — a built-in head start before Election Day even arrives on Nov. 4. In a low-turnout contest, that edge could be the difference between winning and losing.

If Republicans want a lasting majority, they must compete and win in blue states. Right now, they have a real opening. The Democratic Party is bleeding support. Years of pushing radical policies like the Green New Deal, open borders, and “defund the police” have alienated working-class voters and driven traditional Democrats away. Their embrace of socialist candidates has only accelerated the exodus.

California Gov. Gavin Newsom’s recent trolling of Trump on social media may be entertaining, but it underscores the Democrats’ deeper problem. They’re leaning on spectacle. Memes and viral clips don’t bring disillusioned voters back.

Meanwhile, Trump is busy kneecapping his own party. By demonizing mail-in ballots, he isn’t protecting election integrity — he’s strangling Republican chances to win. It’s reckless and it’s political self-sabotage masquerading as principle.

Matt Wylie is a South Carolina-based Republican political strategist and analyst with over 25 years of experience working on federal, state and local campaigns.

This story was originally published August 24, 2025 at 5:00 AM.