GOP strategist: The elections showed how badly we got outplayed by Democrats | Opinion
Tuesday’s elections were a political beatdown — a full-scale rebuke of MAGA at the ballot box and a flashing red warning for Republicans who still think grievance is a governing strategy. While off-year elections don’t predict the midterms, they do expose fault lines and offer plenty of lessons to be learned.
Democrats successfully leveraged the shutdown into a political win. Make no mistake: this shutdown is on them. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer gambled that the pain it would cause — missed paychecks, massive travel delays, and disruptions to WIC, SNAP and Head Start — would translate into political victories. They were right.
Health care has always been the GOP’s Achilles’ heel, so it’s no surprise Democrats chose to die on that hill. What they didn’t anticipate was how long the shutdown would last — or how politically valuable it would become. Once it became clear that SNAP benefits for 42 million Americans would expire just as Obamacare premiums spiked, Democrats had no reason to reopen the government.
Simply put, the GOP got outplayed by the Democrats.
Now Republicans are stuck in a dangerous game of chicken. If this drags through Thanksgiving and Christmas, the political ads will write themselves — empty dinner tables, missed paychecks and a GOP Congress that has been MIA.
Bottom line: If Republicans don’t fix this fast, 2026 won’t just be a loss — it’ll be an extinction event.
Don’t count the Democrats out in 2026. Yes, they were crushed in 2024 and have looked lifeless in Washington since. But in New Jersey and Virginia, they seemed to learn their lesson. They found a way to run against President Donald Trump while running for something. Instead of preaching about “saving democracy” or identity politics, Democrats focused on kitchen table concerns that actually matter to voters.
Exit polls made it clear where priorities lie: the economy and affordability topped the list. Voters are worried about keeping a roof over their heads and food on the table. They’re watching prices climb and job security crumble. And they had reason to worry. October alone showed 153,074 job cuts — the worst October since 2003.
Bottom line: Voters sent a message that should chill every Republican in America: the politics of outrage and grievance don’t win when families can’t pay their bills.
Trump is toxic in blue and purple states. For a movement that promised to “Make America Great Again,” MAGA sure seems intent on making Republicans unelectable in swing states.
Americans are fed up with chaos. They don’t want militarized cities, trade wars that crush farmers and drive-up prices, executive overreach masquerading as strength or citizens targeted for dissent. They don’t just blame Trump, they blame Republicans.
The warning signs have been flashing for months. Just weeks ago, seven million Americans joined “No Kings” protests across the country — a mass rejection of authoritarianism and economic pain. Exit polls from Tuesday confirm what’s happening: the coalition that carried Trump in 2024 is collapsing. In New Jersey, Democrat Mikie Sherrill won 18 percent of Trump’s Hispanic voters.
Bottom line: Exit polls showed that 38% of voters in Virginia and 41% in New Jersey turned out specifically to oppose Trump. If that level of backlash holds in swing districts across the country, Republicans won’t just lose the midterms — they’ll be wiped out. No amount of gerrymandering can protect against that.
Zohran Mamdani’s victory, however, was a win for the GOP. At times, it felt like Trump was doing everything possible to make it happen. His threat to withhold federal funds from New York only fired up Democratic voters, and his endorsement of Cuomo all but sealed Mamdani’s victory.
Mamdani will be an unmitigated disaster for New York City, but he’s the perfect villain for Trump’s next act. Blaming Biden has gone stale, Pelosi is retiring, and Schumer is lifeless. Trump knows every good show needs a villain and Mamdani is perfect for the role.
Bottom line: Expect to see plenty of 2026 campaign ads featuring Mamdani’s face alongside Democratic candidates in suburban districts across America.
Matt Wylie is a S.C.-based Republican political strategist and analyst with over 25 years of experience working on federal, state and local campaigns.
This story was originally published November 8, 2025 at 5:00 AM with the headline "GOP strategist: The elections showed how badly we got outplayed by Democrats | Opinion."