Florida drought, wildfires could worsen potential hurricane impacts

Florida's been facing its worst drought in decades - those conditions, along with the rash of wildfires the state has seen this year, could worsen the impacts of any potential hurricanes.

"Many people assume drought conditions lower the flood risk during hurricane season, but drought-hardened soil and wildfire burn scars can actually increase the risk of rapid runoff and flash flooding," said Alex DaSilva, AccuWeather lead hurricane expert, in a statement.

Almost all of Florida, 99.3 percent, is still considered to be under some form of drought, and the state has already seen the start of 2,124 wildfires since January, which have cumulatively burned 98,069 acres.

Although recent rains have helped improve conditions slightly, particularly over parts of the panhandle, according to DaSilva, drought conditions in much of the state are still severe.

"Areas classified in extreme to exceptional drought dropped from nearly 75% of the state last week to about 64% this week, but this is still one of the more significant drought situations Florida has faced in decades," DaSilva said. "Some locations are approaching drought severity levels comparable to 1998, which was one of the worst drought years on record for Florida."

The consequences of the drought could worsen the impacts of any tropical storms or hurricanes that hit Florida, although chances of development currently "still appear relatively low," DaSilva said.

"When trees experience prolonged drought stress, their root systems weaken," he said. "That can make trees far more vulnerable to being uprooted or snapped during tropical storm or hurricane-force winds. When trees go through months of significant drought stress, the root systems can weaken substantially. That means trees that might normally withstand strong winds can come down much more easily during a tropical storm or hurricane."

In "heavily wooded areas," that could mean more downed trees and large branches falling onto homes, vehicles and power lines, or into roads, "even in storms that may not otherwise have caused as much damage."

Stress from wildfires can also contribute to more intense effects, and particularly intensifies the risk of flooding, DaSilva said, given that vegetation and root systems usually help soak up rainfall and "stabilize" soil.

"When wildfire damage removes that natural protection, heavy rain can run off much faster and trigger flash flooding and erosion problems," he said. "When soil becomes extremely dry and hardened, water has a much harder time soaking into the ground. If a tropical storm or hurricane brings heavy rain, that water can rapidly run off instead of being absorbed, which can actually increase the risk of flash flooding."

When is Atlantic hurricane season?

The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season will last from June 1 to November 30.

How at risk is Miami, the Florida Keys for hurricanes this year?

South Florida is particularly at risk of hurricanes this year, according to Colorado State University's April 9 seasonal forecast. Monroe County, home of the Florida Keys, for instance, has the highest chance of seeing a hurricane come within 50 miles, while Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach are also among the top 10 counties at risk of being affected.

According to CSU, there is a 74% probability that a named storm will pass within 50 miles of Florida's coast and a 21% chance that a major hurricane could do the same during the 2026 hurricane season.

At this point, the odds of any activity developing appear relatively slim, according to DaSilva.

"We will be monitoring the Gulf, the waters off Florida's East Coast and the western Caribbean very closely during the first half of June," he said. "Atmospheric conditions may become somewhat more favorable for tropical development in those areas as we move deeper into the month."

Florida weather radar

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Sarah Perkel is a South Florida Connect Reporter for the USA TODAY Network's Florida Connect team. You can get all of Florida's best content directly in your inbox each weekday day by signing up for the free newsletter, Florida TODAY.

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Florida drought, wildfires could worsen potential hurricane impacts

Reporting by Sarah Perkel, USA TODAY NETWORK / USA TODAY

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This story was originally published May 29, 2026 at 10:14 AM.