We need better, clearer data to accurately judge COVID-19’s current impact in SC
When it comes to data, Mark Twain said it best: “There are lies, damned lies and statistics.”
The better the information, the more targeted the focus, the more fully one can understand an issue. And when that issue is the coronavirus pandemic, the stakes couldn’t be higher: we need meaningful data from which to make decisions that impact every aspect of our lives.
And yet here we have a big problem: the data itself — and that’s by the state Department of Health and Environmental Control’s own admission. No business could get a bank loan with this type of unreliable information, but it’s OK for scientists and politicians?
The data has to be precise and without challenge, and it just isn’t.
How many new cases do we really have?
If someone gets sick, they need a test with negative results to go back to work. Some people have had four positive tests over a 45-day period while they waited for a negative one to return to work — yet we don’t know whether that counted as one case or five.
Flawed reporting
Hospital reporting is equally flawed with death toll numbers from some hospitals backing up over time so that it looks like a huge spike when reported, but in reality was a proportionate climb.
Timeliness is an issue that has not been fixed in reporting data, and it may not be fixable given the variety of sites and organizations providing reports.
How can good decisions be made from flawed data?
We also have to understand the data that we do have.
In March everything stopped in this state: the goal was to flatten the curve and protect hospitals from being overrun.
In May Gov. Henry McMaster began to open up the economy: testing tripled from about 2,000 to 6,000 per day while the overall positive test percentage stayed around 3%.
In June as people from all over the country flocked to the state’s largest tourist attractions – Myrtle Beach, Charleston and Greenville – the new cases began doubling. But so did testing: it was up to 12,000 tests a day with positive test percentages between 10% and 15% (and up to 20%).
What happened? Does anyone know?
As July ended and August began, the overall positive test rates have declined. Whether the decline is permanent or not is unknown, and whether it is tied to mask-wearing ordinances or people learning new behaviors is also unknown.
Where do we go?
So where do we go from here?
What percentage of new cases are we willing to accept?
The new reality is that until a vaccine is found, we have to understand that a certain percentage range has to constitute success in this changed environment.
Is 1,100 cases per day acceptable? Is 500? Is 100?
And who is really at risk?
Right now we don’t even know if we can believe the data we’re given because of inadequate reporting, much less understand it enough to make informed decisions.
As evidence by the tragedies we’ve seen in nursing homes, the plan to protect senior citizens should be different from the plan to protect schoolchildren or vacationers.
Like masks, one size does not fit all.
Meanwhile the media continue to give us their one-size-fits-all reporting of a limited set of data that we know is flawed and doesn’t serve the public good. It only creates divisiveness in our communities when we really need to come together as one.
Leadership is about more than “masking up!”
It is about more than hashtags and social media selfies.
It is about telling people the truth, and demanding the best data available.
We don’t have it — and no one is demanding it.
And that’s not good enough when our lives are at stake.
A lifelong Columbia resident, Peter Brown is the president of Colite. From 2005 to 2013 Brown served as the chairman of the SC Jobs-Economic Development Authority.
This story was originally published August 9, 2020 at 8:23 AM.