There are scenarios where Clemson can win its ACC division. Here’s how likely each is
For as strange as 2020 was for college football, some things seem that much more bizarre in 2021.
This is especially true for Clemson, which has had uncharacteristic offensive struggles and an unusually high number of injuries.
For the first time since 2014, the Tigers have three losses on the year, two of which came during ACC play. Despite this, they still have a chance at making the ACC Championship Game and extending their streak of conference titles to seven years.
For Clemson’s part in the matter, it comes down to the Tigers’ home finale against Wake Forest, set for noon Saturday at Memorial Stadium.
“We’re a wounded dog on the side of the road. We need some help,” Clemson head coach Dabo Swinney said. “We need somebody to pick us up and bandage us up, give us some new life. We’re still alive, but if we don’t win this game, we’re not. If we win the game, it’s going to go all the way down to the last day.”
▪ Clemson predictions: ESPN’s Football Power fives Clemson a 52.1% chance of winning out and a 10.5% chance of clinching the division. The FPI gives Clemson the edge (69.1%) against Wake this week. After Pitt (Coastal) and Wake Forest (Atlantic), Clemson has the best odds (5.5%) to win the conference, but it starts with winning the division.
▪ What’s next: For Clemson to win the Atlantic Division, the Tigers must defeat Wake Forest and have the following two things happen with the Demon Deacons and N.C. State:
1. Wake Forest loses both its final games
Wake Forest closes out the season with road games at Clemson and Boston College.
Clemson defensive coordinator Brent Venables was quick to point out that the Demon Deacons aren’t an overnight success story. While they’re 9-1 for the second time in program history and 6-0 in conference play for the first time, they’ve been a good program.
“They were really good last year, they were really good the year before, they were really good the year before that,” Venables said. “They’ve been really good. ... I don’t see anything that’s necessarily different. They’ve got a veteran group. They’re playing really well.”
Even still, the Tigers have had Wake Forest’s number for the past 12 years. Last year, the two teams played in the season opener in Winston-Salem, North Carolina and Clemson took the 37-13 victory. On top of that, Clemson has an active 33-game winning streak at Memorial Stadium and can extend it to 34 on Saturday.
Even with the Deacs having more on-field success and a better record, the Tigers are a 4½-point favorite heading into the contest.
“I just think that Clemson started so highly power rated, and those power ratings are based on the talent the players have. Clemson still has those talented players,” ESPN Chalk gambling writer David Purdum said. “Then when you look at Wake Forest, their power rating to start the season was way further down, so I think it’s just (oddsmakers) trying to narrow as much as they can that gap between what they thought Wake Forest and Clemson would be. ... There’s still a lot of respect for Clemson even though they’ve had a down year.”
A Wake loss to Boston College next weekend isn’t that far-fetched, either, with starting quarterback Phil Jurkovec returning to the field after being out with a broken bone in his hand that required surgery. The last time the two teams played in 2019, though, the Demon Deacons won 27-24 with the help of a 243-yard passing performance from quarterback Jamie Newman.
The Eagles lead the overall series with the Demon Deacons 14-11-2 and have won three of the last five meetings. The two teams didn’t play in 2020.
▪ Wake Forest predictions: ESPN’s Football Power Index gives Wake Forest a 7.6% chance of winning out and a 73.8% chance of winning the Atlantic Division. The FPI predicts Clemson has a greater chance (69.1%) to win this week, with Wake more likely to get a win (62%) against BC.
2. NC State loses one more game
The Wolfpack are at home for the rest of the season, playing host to Syracuse on Saturday and North Carolina next weekend in the regular-season finale.
While the Orange should be a win for N.C. State, the Tar Heels present more of a challenge. Quarterback and ACC preseason player of the year Sam Howell is averaging 270.4 passing yards per game and has thrown 22 touchdowns and eight interceptions this season. On the other side of the line of scrimmage will be an N.C. State defense that’s ranked fifth in the conference defending the pass, allowing 227.8 yards in the air. The group is also first in the league with 13 interceptions. Drake Thomas, Tyler Baker-Williams and Shyheim Battle each have two on the year.
▪ N.C. State predictions: They have a 52.1% chance of winning both contests, according to ESPN’s FPI, with a 15.7% chance of winning the Atlantic Division, second only to Wake Forest. Broken down by game, FPI likes N.C. State’s chances (86.8%) and against the Tar Heels (69.2%).
Final thoughts
Where Clemson has dominated the ACC for almost 10 years, the Tigers’ down year offensively has opened up the Atlantic Division for a couple more contenders. At the same time, they’re still in the mix as well.
Wake Forest is the only team that fully controls its own destiny, while Clemson and N.C. State have to have a few pieces fall their way.
The ACC championship game is set for Dec. 4 at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte.
This story was originally published November 19, 2021 at 9:22 AM.
