Where Clemson football stands in ACC tiebreakers, CFP race after ‘horrible’ loss
Clemson’s path to the College Football Playoff was clear.
Now, it’s a road filled with potholes.
The Tigers lost control of their own destiny in the ACC championship game race after Saturday’s 31-22 home loss to unranked Louisville, which coach Dabo Swinney has described at various points as “awful,” “horrible” and “incredibly disappointing.”
“We really missed an opportunity,” he said Saturday.
That was reflected in the national rankings, as Clemson (6-1, 5-2 ACC) dropped eight spots in The Associated Press Top 25 and came in at No. 23 in the first of six College Football Playoff Top 25 rankings revealed Tuesday night.
Clemson had a 62% chance to make the College Football Playoff (ninth nationally) before the Louisville game. That dropped to a 26% chance (15th nationally) after the loss, according to The Athletic’s week-by-week projections.
ESPN’s Football Power Index is even less optimistic and puts the Tigers’ CFP chances at 12.5%, which is No. 22 nationally and just ahead of rival South Carolina (10.3%).
In the expanded 12-team field, though, two losses aren’t an immediate eliminating factor. An ACC championship game appearance (and a chance at an automatic bid to the CFP) remains a possibility for Clemson down the stretch.
But that’s quite a longshot.
Winning out is a non-negotiable
For Clemson to have a fighting chance at an ACC championship bid and potential auto-bid to the CFP, the Tigers need to win out their remaining conference schedule.
That was already no small task. Based on how the team played Saturday against Louisville, it looks like even more of a toss-up now.
Clemson is in Blacksburg this Saturday to play Virginia Tech (5-4, 3-2), and it wraps up with a road game at No. 18 Pittsburgh (7-1, 3-1 ACC) next weekend.
The Tigers are favored by 6.5 points on the road at VT and have a 62.4% chance to win, per ESPN’s FPI. Clemson also has a 64% chance to win at Pitt.
Sure, some mathematical doomsday scenarios exist, but a second conference loss at a time where Miami and SMU both remain undefeated would be all but eliminating.
The Tigers currently have a 2.3% chance to win the ACC, per ESPN’s FPI, and the website PlayoffStatus.com projects them with a 9% chance to reach the league title game in the first place. That’s fourth behind SMU (89%), Miami (81%) and Pitt (15%).
Scenario 1: Miami slips up
Miami (9-0, 5-0 ACC) is the best team in the ACC this year. The Hurricanes’ three remaining ACC games are at Georgia Tech, vs. Wake Forest and at Syracuse.
The most feasible way for Clemson to jump Miami in the ACC standings is for the Hurricanes to lose two of their last three conference games — which is very unlikely.
If Miami finished 7-1 with a loss to Georgia Tech or Syracuse, its record against the four common opponents it shares with Clemson — Florida State, Louisville, Virginia Tech and Wake Forest — would still be 4-0. Clemson’s record would be 3-1.
And if Miami finished 7-1 with a loss to Wake Forest, a common opponent, it would likely still have an edge over Clemson by virtue of its win over Louisville.
The ACC tiebreaker policy dictates that when two teams have the same winning percentage against common opponents, the next tiebreaker is winning percentage vs. common opponents “based upon their order of finish.”
That tiebreaker essentially rewards the team that won against a better opponent during conference play. The Cardinals are trending toward the best finish among Miami and Clemson’s three common opponents.
And, of course: Miami is 1-0 vs. Louisville, and Clemson is 0-1.
Miami is favored in all of its remaining games and has a 62.9% chance to win the ACC and 90.3% chance to make the CFP, per ESPN.
Scenario 2: SMU slips up
Southern Methodist is the second highest ranked team in the ACC this season at 8-1, 5-0 ACC and No. 13 in the CFP rankings.
The Mustangs, a first-year member formerly of the American Athletic Conference, close conference play vs. Boston College, at Virginia and vs. Cal.
Once again, it’s a scenario where the SMU likely needs to lose twice.
If SMU finishes 7-1 with a loss to Boston College or Cal, it still finishes above a 7-1 Clemson in the ACC standings because of a 5-0 record against common opponents (Florida State, Louisville, Virginia, Pitt and Stanford). Clemson would be 4-1.
If SMU finishes 7-1 with a loss to Virginia, a common opponent, the Mustangs could still win the tiebreaker over Clemson in the same fashion as Miami — by their winning percentage vs. common opponents based upon their order of finish.
At that point, SMU and Clemson would both be 4-1 against their common opponents but SMU would likely still get the edge because of its win over Louisville, which is trending toward finishing in the top half of the ACC standings.
SMU’s favored to win all of its remaining games and has a 31.9% chance of winning the ACC and 41.8% chance of making the CFP, per ESPN.
Scenario 3: An at-large bid?
Clemson has one more guaranteed win on its schedule: a Nov. 23 home game vs. The Citadel, an in-state FCS school. What if the Tigers were to run the table and pair that with road wins at Virginia Tech and Pittsburgh and a home win over South Carolina?
Even if the team misses the ACC title game (more likely than not at this point), Clemson could finish 10-2 and 7-1 in the ACC with losses to Georgia and Louisville. The Tigers’ best wins on the season would likely be at Pittsburgh and vs. USC.
It’s far from the worst résumé, but there are plenty of shortcomings. For one, Clemson’s strength of schedule, which currently ranks No. 61 out of 134 teams per ESPN’s FPI. The Tigers’ remaining strength of schedule isn’t much better at No. 43.
Evaluators would also have to reckon with how lost Clemson looked in its 31-point season-opening loss to Georgia and its home loss to Louisville — forgettable performances against arguably the two best teams on the Tigers’ schedule.
On top of that: The ACC has struggled with perception issues for years and isn’t in great position to be a three-bid league during the first year of the 12-team CFP.
Clemson making the field as one of seven at-large bids would likely require SMU losing to Miami in the ACC championship game in embarrassing blowout fashion.
At that point, though, the College Football Playoff selection committee could easily look elsewhere to deserving teams in other power conferences to fill at-large slots.
The Tigers would be in the same situation if they make the ACC championship game but don’t win and finish 10-3.
This story was originally published November 6, 2024 at 1:41 PM.
