Clemson lost 7 football recruits to other schools. A closer look at why, what’s next
Once is by chance. Twice is a coincidence. Three times is a pattern.
What about seven?
Coach Dabo Swinney’s Clemson football program has suffered an unprecedented number of decommitments this cycle, including four from top 100 prospects. And 247Sports recruiting analyst Tom Loy doesn’t think it’s too hard to figure out why.
“We all know that NIL is not a Clemson strong suit at this point,” Loy told The State.
On Wednesday’s early national signing day, the Tigers formally signed a smaller-than-usual class that ranks — as of now — as one of the lowest of Swinney’s 17-year tenure. Clemson’s 2025 class has 15 commits and ranks No. 26 nationally.
The key culprit? Mid-cycle defections, which Loy said are being fueled by Clemson’s policy that it won’t dangle money as a recruiting enticement during the NIL era.
Swinney has been publicly optimistic about how college football’s new revenue-sharing model could even the playing field. The Tigers are reportedly set to commit well over 75% of their $20.5 million athlete revenue sharing pool that will debut next summer to football players. Still, Loy said there’s still a sense nationally Clemson needs to go even further, and he gets why fans have become restless.
“I’m sure it’s frustrating,” he said, “because I think as soon as Clemson opens the faucet and decides to fully buy in, all of this is going to go away.”
Clemson’s decommitment issues
Seven 2025 recruits have flipped their commitment from Clemson to another school since March, and six of those have broken their pledges since late August.
And it’s not a product of on-field performance. The Tigers went 9-3 and 7-1 in the ACC this season and will play SMU for the ACC championship and a spot in the inaugural 12-team College Football Playoff on Saturday night.
Other factors are at play, Loy said.
Three-star offensive lineman Jaylan Beckley can be considered a bit of an outlier. The Texas native committed to Clemson, decommitted from Clemson and recommitted to Oklahoma State in the span of three months this spring.
Since August, though, Clemson’s class attrition has been historic.
A recap of the Tigers’ decommitments and their new schools:
Aug 25: Four-star edge rusher Bryce Davis (Duke)
Sept. 21: Four-star defensive tackle Isaiah Campbell (Tennessee)
Oct. 14: Four-star quarterback Blake Hebert (Notre Dame)
Nov. 1: Four-star cornerback Graceson Littleton (Texas)
Nov. 23: Four-star safety Tae Harris (Georgia Tech)
Dec. 1 Four-star safety Jordan Young (Michigan)
Between Campbell (No. 37), Harris (No. 48), Littleton (No. 65) and Davis (No. 84), that’s four recruits inside the 247Sports composite top 100 rankings (which factor in multiple outlets’ rankings) that were once Clemson-bound and now on the outs.
Young (No. 150) is just outside that range, and Hebert (No. 395) was a quarterback Clemson had identified early and had high hopes for. Add in Beckley, and the Tigers have seven decommits — and all of them are headed to other Power 4 schools.
Per 247Sports data, it’s the most decommitments in a single cycle ever under Swinney, who’s coached at the school full-time since 2009. Clemson had two broken pledges in the 2023 cycle; four in the 2022 cycle (a period that saw the Tigers lose both of their coordinators to head coaching jobs); and six decommits back in 2013.
Swinney’s take?
“It’s just 2024,” he said last week, shrugging as he began his answer. “It doesn’t happen a lot here. Hopefully, it won’t happen a lot once we get into a little bit more of a normal environment. … But I do think, no matter what, it’ll be something that unfortunately will be a little more common for everyone moving forward.”
This is the fourth recruiting class Clemson’s signed since the NCAA started allowing athletes to financially benefit from their name, image and likeness (NIL) starting in 2021. Swinney has said often that if a recruit is looking exclusively for a payday, Clemson probably won’t get them and he’s at peace with that.
For three years, that didn’t stop the Tigers from stacking high-end talent. Clemson’s 2022, 2023 and 2024 signing classes ranked No. 10, No. 11 and No. 11 respectively, per 247Sports, and were loaded with some of the top recruits on the current roster.
True to form, the team’s 2025 class does include some blue-chip recruits who held firm on their Clemson commitments. Top 50 defensive lineman Amare Adams, the No. 1 recruit in the state of South Carolina, shooed off Florida State and rival USC. Four-star offensive lineman Brayden Jacobs was offered $1 million by an unnamed school earlier this year but declined to flip, his father revealed on social media.
‘The way life works’
But Clemson, which had two total decommitments that weren’t tied to coordinator changes from 2022-24 — is now taking the sort of recruiting losses it never has.
No recruit decommitting from Clemson has publicly stated they left exclusively for money, and that is rarely 100% of a prospect’s reasoning.
But Tigers fans this year have grown all too familiar with the trend: A recruit verbally commits to Clemson. Within weeks or months, there are rumblings of another school. Then, a decommitment or a flip. Often simultaneously.
Davis, the four-star edge rusher, was committed to Clemson for just over a month before flipping to Duke. Harris, a four-star safety, declared Sept. 15 his recruitment was “100% closed” and was a Georgia Tech pledge by Nov. 23. Most recently, another four-star safety recruit, Young, flipped to Michigan on Sunday afternoon.
Clemson’s decommit number is high for a program that generally excels in recruiting and retention, but it’s also in line with a growing number of decommitments nationally (600 and counting this cycle, per 247Sports data).
“Guys are going to find ways to make sure prospects are compensated,” Loy said. “Some schools are going to do whatever it takes. It’s just the way life works.”
Add Clemson’s decommitments back into the fold, he said, and the Tigers’ 2025 recruiting class soars from OK at best to elite. The 247Sports Class Calculator reveals that, had Clemson held onto all six recruits who decommitted since August, it would’ve had the nation’s No. 10 class, sandwiched between LSU and Tennessee.
Even retaining two of the top 100 prospects Loy views as “NFL guys” would’ve netted the Tigers a class ranked somewhere in the No. 11-20 range nationally.
“With Campbell, Harris, Littleton and Davis, those right there are four NFL guys,” Loy said. “Blake Hebert’s right on the cusp. I think Jordan Young will be on the cusp when his time is done. Those are all difference makers.”
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Will revenue sharing help?
So, what’s the solution?
Clemson rolled out plans last week for how it will directly pay athletes starting next summer as a result of the House vs. NCAA settlement. The Tigers, athletic director Graham Neff said, will be committing the maximum of $20.5 million to be distributed among their athletes. The new system will go into effect July 1, 2025.
Clemson didn’t disclose what percentage of that $20.5 million will be set aside for football players, but it’s reportedly expected to rise well above the standard “75% of money to football” rate most power conference schools are using as a starting point.
“Ain’t nobody gonna have more money than Clemson,” Swinney said last week.
The football team’s revenue-sharing portion will be key to helping “ attract and retain top talent,” Clemson’s coach added in a PSA to fans that aired during last week’s home football finale vs. South Carolina.
That’ll even the playing field and add structure to a currently murky NIL world, Loy said, but in his opinion Clemson must do more to stay nationally competitive.
Recruits can still earn NIL money on top of their revenue-sharing money — the specifics of that model are still to be determined. While Clemson’s significant investment in football gives the Tigers a strong pitch, it’s not the be-all and end-all.
After a record number of 2025 decommitments, it’s something the 247Sports recruiting analyst sees as something Clemson must lean into for 2026 and beyond.
Had the Tigers embraced more of an NIL model, “I think a lot of these guys would have ended up sticking with Clemson,” Loy said. “So it’s just going to come down to adapting to the times. And we’ll see if Dabo decides to do that.”
