Huge offseason looms for Clemson, Dabo after bowl loss. Here’s what must change
In August, Dabo Swinney told ESPN he thought Clemson was “going to be the first 16-0 team.” It wasn’t a formal prediction for 2025 — just a long-term aspiration.
But a prominent college football coach who knows his words carry weight doesn’t say that to a national media outlet unless he feels really good about his roster.
On Saturday, that roster was a shell of itself, down nearly 30 scholarship players, including four starting defenders who opted out of participating in the Pinstripe Bowl and a fifth who transferred. The skeleton crew that showed up instead dropped seven passes, whiffed on tackles and was on the wrong end of most critical plays.
And the Clemson team that Swinney more or less said had a chance to go 16-0, running the table through the College Football Playoff, finished … 7-6.
Saturday’s 22-10 loss to Penn State at Yankee Stadium was a final reminder of the glaring discrepancy between Clemson’s 2025 expectations and actual results.
And if the Tigers’ worst season under Swinney in 15 years doesn’t trigger an uncomfortable offseason and a long, hard look in the mirror, that’s concerning.
Penn State result speaks to greater 2025 trends
Swinney’s Clemson program needs a refresh in lots of areas.
This would have been true regardless of Clemson’s bowl result — yes, even if the Tigers had beaten Penn State, ended the year on a five-game winning streak and joined Georgia and Alabama as the only programs with eight-plus wins each of the past 15 seasons.
But on-field results certainly help hammer home the point.
You could probably count on one hand the number of times Clemson wasn’t the tougher team during its heyday from 2015-19 when it made four CFP national championship games and won it all twice against Alabama.
Scratch that: You could count it on one hand, because Clemson went 69-5 in that five-year stretch. In the 2025 season alone, Clemson lost six games, and that description — not the tougher team — comfortably applies to all of them.
Penn State certainly wasn’t scared of the Tigers. Interim coach Terry Smith said as much postgame, offering this quote on his team’s offensive game plan:
“A game like today where it’s very cold outside and every hit hurts to the core of your body, our guys wore them down. And eventually, they succumbed to it.”
Penn State ran for 151 non-sack rushing yards on Clemson in the Pinstripe Bowl and averaged 3.9 yards per carry. On third downs alone, the Nittany Lions ran 11 times, converted seven of them and averaged 6.4 yards per third-down rush.
It was a microcosm of what went wrong for Clemson in the Pinstripe Bowl — and the 2025 season in general, which saw the Tigers post their worst winning percentage under Swinney since 2010, when they finished 6-7.
The warm fuzzies of a solid four-game stretch when Clemson banded together and swept its November schedule to make a bowl game can’t erase that.
In a season that was supposed to have proven that “Dabo’s way” — primarily high school recruiting, strong development and retention, select portal additions — was still a recipe for success in the modern college football world, Clemson instead:
– Lost its seventh straight game to a ranked SEC team (then-No. 9 LSU).
– Went .500 in ACC play for the second time in the last three years.
– Finished with a losing home record (3-4) for the first time since 1998.
– Lost four straight home games to power conference teams.
“Just not winning football,” Swinney said of Clemson’s performance vs. Penn State, although that description also could have applied a lot of other Saturdays.
Swinney and the Tigers are going to finish at least 10 spots below their preseason AP ranking for the third time in the last four years (in this year’s final AP poll, they won’t be ranked at all). Over the past three years, they’re 26-15 overall and 16-9 in conference games — winning percentages that trail ACC counterparts including SMU, Miami, Louisville and Georgia Tech (albeit narrowly).
And that includes a 2024 College Football Playoff and ACC championship season!
Staying the course in 2026 can’t be the solution
Clemson had a strong 2025 offseason: Retaining its best players, adding an impact transfer (Will Heldt), poaching a talented defensive coordinator (Tom Allen). Those major moves by Swinney were celebrated nationally, and rightfully so.
But they weren’t enough to overcome the lingering issues that can feel fluky in a vacuum but, in context of Clemson’s recent slide, are actually just trends — indicative of players, coaches, execution and program management that are all good.
Just not good enough.
That stands out even more at a school that is funding football and compensating its players, coaches and support staff at an elite rate — without elite returns.
Swinney, of course, has earned the right to fix these issues. He’s the winningest coach in team history and has brought unquantifiable value to the program and university. But this is as critical an offseason as he’s ever had.
The next two months or so — from now until 2026 spring practice — will be definitive.
Does Clemson make a change at offensive coordinator, or does Swinney march on with Garrett Riley? Does Clemson pursue a big-time transfer quarterback, or does Swinney take the massive gamble of walking into the other Death Valley (LSU) with inexperienced Christopher Vizzina as his starter? Does Clemson finally lean into the portal to address major talent gaps, especially on defense?
Swinney, who takes pride in avoiding “emotional decisions,” said his personal charge over the next few weeks is to “evaluate everything.”
“I know what it is, and I know how close we are,” he said postgame. “It’s one more catch. It’s one more good throw. It’s a better call. It’s one more stop.”
Speaking broadly about potential offseason changes for his program, Swinney also vowed to “make good decisions based on what my perspective is. I’ll change what I need to change, and stay the course on what I believe I need to stay the course on.”
This much is clear: Based on what Clemson put on film in 2025 during a season where its coach floated a 16-0 finish, running it back as is won’t cut it.
Clemson football 2026 schedule
Specific dates for ACC games to be announced in January
Non-conference games: LSU (road, Sept. 5), Georgia Southern (home, Sept. 12), Charleston Southern (home, Oct. 17), South Carolina (home, Nov. 28)
ACC home games: UNC, Virginia Tech, Georgia Tech, Miami
ACC road games: Syracuse, Duke, Florida State, Cal
This story was originally published December 28, 2025 at 7:00 AM.
