Breaking down South Carolina’s chances on the SEC tournament bubble
After being swept by Vanderbilt last weekend at Founders Park, South Carolina baseball coach Mark Kingston offered a blunt assessment of the differences between the two teams.
“They’re an Omaha-type team, and right now we are not,” Kingston said.
Indeed, a College World Series or even an NCAA tournament appearance seem all but impossible for the Gamecocks with two weeks remaining in the regular season. Instead, the more immediate question facing Carolina and Kingston right now is this — Are they a Hoover team?
It’s been 23 years since South Carolina last missed the SEC tournament — back in 1996, eight of the league’s 12 teams advanced to the tourney, and the Gamecocks finished ninth with a 13-17 conference record.
With six games left in the 2019 season, South Carolina stands at 5-19 in the SEC, alone in 14th and last place in the league standings. Theoretically, the Gamecocks could climb as high as 10th by the end of the season. Realistically, they’re battling Kentucky and Alabama, who both stand one game ahead at 6-18, for the 12th and final tournament spot.
A reminder: Two-team ties in the SEC are broken by head-to-head results. In ties of three or more teams, combined head-to-head winning percentage is used if all three teams played each other. If not, the teams’ winning percentage versus the No. 1 seed and proceeding through the No. 12 seed, if necessary, would be used, counting common opponents only.
So, all of that makes this weekend’s series between USC and Kentucky absolutely crucial. At the same time, Alabama will hosts No. 18 Texas A&M. Here’s a breakdown of some of the scenarios that could play out.
Kentucky sweeps
The Gamecocks are eliminated from SEC tournament contention.
Kentucky wins two of three
South Carolina would likely need to sweep Mississippi State, an extremely tall order, in the final week of the season, and have both Alabama and Kentucky struggle and fail to hit nine SEC wins.
There is a very narrow path for the Gamecocks to only take two of three from the Bulldogs (still a difficult task) and finish in 12th — Kentucky would have to be swept in its final series against Vanderbilt and Alabama would have to be swept this weekend by Texas A&M and win two of three against Georgia in its final series, creating a three-way tie of 8-22 teams. Any head-to-head tiebreakers and South Carolina would lose and miss out.
South Carolina wins two of three or sweeps
While losing the series to Kentucky would make South Carolina’s SEC tournament chances exceedingly slim, winning the series doesn’t necessarily mean the Gamecocks will make it.
Some of it depends on what Alabama does against Texas A&M — because the Crimson Tide own the head-to-head tiebreaker over USC, the Gamecocks have to either finish one game ahead of ‘Bama, regardless of how Kentucky finishes, or get in a three-way tie with both teams.
In the event of a three-way tie for 12th, South Carolina, Alabama and Kentucky have three common opponents guaranteed to finish in the top eight spots — Vanderbilt, Georgia and Texas A&M. The Gamecocks were swept by Vandy and Georgia but could win a tiebreaker involving A&M.
Obviously, the situation remains fluid and there are plenty of variables that could change things between now and May 21, the start of the tournament in Alabama. That’s why Kingston himself said he isn’t getting too caught up in thinking this weekend’s series is a “must-win” for his ball club.
“Truthfully, we’re just trying to win the next game we play. There’s just too many factors outside your control — how will Kentucky do after this weekend, how is Alabama doing, and such,” Kingston said.
But even if he isn’t playing out every scenario in his head, Kingston is still very much targeting the conference tournament as one of the last attainable prizes in a disappointing season.
“You always want to accomplish whatever’s out there to accomplish, so I would put that in that category,” Kingston said. “That’s definitely something we want to happen. ... I want to see these guys rewarded. They have put in a lot of hard work and very few things have gone our way this year, so I would like to see them rewarded for the hard work and the perseverance they’ve shown.”
SEC STANDINGS
EAST
1. Vanderbilt, 18-6
2. Georgia, 16-8
3. Missouri, 12-11-1
4. Tennessee, 10-14
5. Florida, 9-15
6. Kentucky, 6-18
7. South Carolina, 5-19
WEST
1. Arkansas, 17-7
2. Mississippi State, 15-9
3. Ole Miss, 15-9
4. LSU, 14-10
5. Texas A&M, 12-11-1
6. Auburn, 12-12
7. Alabama, 6-18
This story was originally published May 9, 2019 at 5:16 PM.
