What Vegas Thinks: A double-digit spread ... and what that says about USC and Vandy
South Carolina football is coming off a discouraging loss on the road to Tennessee. Vanderbilt is coming off an open week and, before that, an upset win over Missouri. But when the opening lines came out this week for the matchup between the Gamecocks and the Commodores, USC was favored by as many as 16 points by some sportsbooks.
The Gamecocks need a win to keep their fading bowl hopes alive. The Commodores and coach Derek Mason are fighting to keep his job. In a clash of highly-motivated teams, USC has an 88.2% chance of winning, according to ESPN’s Football Power Index.
The State spoke with longtime gambling industry reporter David Purdum, of ESPN Chalk, to get his thoughts on the betting side of USC-Vandy.
The State: What’s the state of the line right now? Where’s the money been going?
David Purdum: The consensus is (15) points right now. Opened as low as 14, climbed to 15 and a half at one point (in favor of USC).
The State: South Carolina’s beaten Vanderbilt 10 times in a row dating back to 2009. But the Gamecocks haven’t always covered against the Commodores?
David Purdum: That’s exactly right. They’ve won 10 in a row in this series but they’re 4-5-1, so four covers, five non-covers, one push. Couldn’t get much more close than that. The other thing that I noticed is that this line, at 15, is the biggest in this series since 2014.
The State: South Carolina just had a very disappointing loss to Tennessee, and Vanderbilt beat Missouri. Why are the Gamecocks favored by so much?
David Purdum: Yeah, I think this is more of an anti-Vanderbilt line than a pro-South Carolina line. I would probably, if I was you, look at all the other Vanderbilt games and see what their lines were and kind of gauge it from there.
Note: Vanderbilt has been 20-plus point underdogs three times this year and is 1-6 against the spread this season. On the road against Ole Miss, Vanderbilt was a 7-point underdog.
The State: Are there any betting odds or markets on hot seat rankings? Both these coaches have been mentioned in those discussions.
David Purdum: Nobody in the regulated U.S. market is taking any kind of bets like that. Nevada actually has regulations that prevent that. Some of the other states probably have a specific way to go through, basically a request to bet through the gaming commission, and nobody’s approved those ones yet.
The State: And what’s the early line on Clemson-South Carolina?
David Purdum: Game of the Year just came out with updated lines. Clemson is a 20.5-point favorite at South Carolina.
Note: Clemson originally opened as 23.5-point favorites against South Carolina before the season began.
