So what kind of chance does South Carolina actually have to make a bowl?
The South Carolina football team clearly faces long odds to make a bowl with a 4-6 record at the moment and a trip to Texas A&M this week, then a visit from No. 3 Clemson to close out the regular season.
But exactly how small is that chance?
For the answer, it’s worth turning to two of the most used projection systems in the sport. ESPN’s FPI offers percentages for each team in each game, and SP+, a product of former SBNation writer Bill Connelly, gives ratings that can be converted into projected win percentages. Based on those systems, South Carolina’s chance at bowling:
FPI: 2%
FPI gives USC a 22.1% chance to win this week and an 8.9% against the Tigers two weeks later. SP+ has the percentages at 26.6% and 17%, respectively.
Should South Carolina miss a bowl, it will only be their third time since Steve Spurrier arrived in 2005. The year prior, the team turned down a bowl spot because of the brawl with Clemson.
The other two bowl-less seasons were the 3-9 campaign in 2015 when Spurrier resigned halfway through and 2007, when a team with Kenny McKinley, Jared Cook and Blake Mitchell rose to No. 6 after a 6-1 start and lost the final five games to miss out (there were only 32 bowls at that point, so three 6-6 Power 5 teams were left out).
USC has lost three times as a favorite this season, dropping games to Appalachian State, North Carolina and Tennessee. They have won as an underdog once, topping No. 3 Georiga on the road in what was likely the biggest upset of the season to this point.
Kickoff on Saturday in College Station is set for 7:30 p.m. on the SEC Network.
