What’s next for South Carolina’s football future? We break down some scenarios
The situation around South Carolina’s football team has been fraught with speculation.
It’s the nature of a bad season, especially after the first few years but before a coach has become established longterm. There are calls from fans for the coach’s head, the coach’s boss’ head and the staff that works for the coach.
The specter of a new president doesn’t help matters, and there’s always a sense a team can make top-end changes to sooth angst over present failures.
It’s worth looking at some potential outcomes and their likelihood.
Scenario 1: Everyone on the football staff returns
What that looks like: This almost never happens. USC hasn’t had full continuity in any of Muschamp’s three years, and had relatively high levels of stability in two of those three offseasons.
Confidence level it plays out this way: Extremely unlikely
Scenario 2: The football staff has natural attrition
What that looks like: This would imply the coordinators stay in place or move on to better jobs, with one or two shifts in the position coaches. Considering where the offense is sitting (115th in yards per play vs. FBS teams), this might be a hard sell.
Confidence level it plays out this way: Pretty unlikely
Scenario 3: There’s a shakeup in the offensive staff, plus attrition
What that looks like: With how the Gamecocks have played on offense, this seems very possible. It’s true Bryan McClendon is only 1-for-2 in terms of producing good offenses, but Muschamp has sounded less and less enthused with what’s being done on that side of the ball. It also is the most natural step in coaching transactions that a head coach under fire makes a change on the side with the most issues.
Confidence level it plays out this way: The most likely
Scenario 4: Will Muschamp is fired
What that looks like: Many fans have called for such an outcome, but in the end there are a few hurdles. First is the $19 million contact buyout that would drop by a few million at the end of next season. All indications are Athletics Director Ray Tanner believes in Muschamp and would like to see him get one more chance. (And no full-time USC coach has had fewer than five years since the 1930s.) How the Clemson game plays out could factor into the mood here, as could Muschamp’s own desire to go through a do-or-die season.
Confidence level it plays out this way: Possible by several avenues, but not super likely
Scenario 5: Will Muschamp stays, Ray Tanner moves on
What that looks like: In a world where new school president Robert Caslen wanted to shake up all of athletics, this is how things would go. Many fans have called for changes at both spots, but were that to happen, an interim AD would be in charge of picking a football coach. This would have the order to facilitate a full shakeup if next year doesn’t go well. Caslen by all indications seems to like Tanner and stood by a public statement made last week.
Confidence level it plays out this way: Not very likely
Scenario 6: Tanner and Muschamp are both sent off
What that looks like: This would be dramatic and give a lot of angry folks that momentary burst of catharsis. And then it wouldn’t work. An AD couldn’t be hired that fast. A coach would be working for someone who didn’t hire him from the start. It would introduce a lot of instability that couldn’t be made stable quickly.
Confidence level it plays out this way: Deeply unlikely
This story was originally published November 19, 2019 at 1:44 PM.
