The optimism cycle can be cruel. How it impacts South Carolina and Will Muschamp
Historically, the expectation for a college football QB was to wait in the wings, develop behind a veteran and eventually take over the starting role. This expectation has shifted in recent years.
These days, fans pine after the young guy to get in right now. Then there’s leeway given to a young player. But as time passes, unless improvement is steady and constant, patience and optimism burn away.
Jake Bentley was better as a junior than a freshman, but many were not as happy with him. He was once the darling, but spent his last year-plus with fans asking for Dakereon Joyner or Michael Scarnecchia or Ryan Hilinski. Once Hilinski got in, there was excitement, but one can bet that at some point next year after some imperfect performance, many will be calling for the new freshman, Luke Doty.
And this cycle, one of hope and optimism burning away, can tell us a lot about where Gamecock football currently stands.
The Gamecocks are 4-7 in Year 4 of Will Muschamp’s tenure. Two overachieving seasons gave way to two seasons that disappointed. Muschamp is under fire from fans, from some alums.
And in some way, the hope cycle is on a downswing, and most of the optimism for him has burned away.
Those first two seasons had a lot of hopefulness that built toward confidence. Muschamp was doing more with less, and the recruiting seemed to be in a good place.
There was the lining at the edge, an offense that had issues, the best win in the first three seasons being an upset of a fading Tennessee team. But still, feelings were mostly good with six wins in 2016, then nine in 2017.
That story isn’t an uncommon one. Whether a coach is good or bad, the first few years are about looking forward, a cocoon of good feelings about what’s coming.
Look at Nebraska or Michigan, working through a string of coaches, each one inspiring hope and having it run out in one way or another. (Bo Pelini won 70 percent of his games, and by the end, fans felt they’d gone as far as they could with him)
Look at David Cutcliffe and Ole Miss. He had five consecutive winning seasons, but questions about his ceiling meant he was out after one bad year.
Shoot, before too long, Kirby Smart (33-6 the past three years), will start to draw ire if consistent playoff spots — or a national title — don’t make their way to Athens. Look at Gus Malzahn who is 70-33 and spends most year on the hot seat.
This isn’t about whether the choice is right or wrong, but this fact: The honeymoon always ends.
Unless the promise and hype that inevitably build are delivered upon, folks tend to get tired. There’s the allure of something new.
Simply put, there’s some part of fans that would prefer the combo of struggling along with hope for the future, as opposed to modest success and no sense things will greatly improve.
At the moment, South Carolina football is not seeing modest success. The program was going to have tough sledding against a brutal schedule, but this season has been worse than expected, especially considering the upset of No. 3 Georgia on the road.
But there is, around the fanbase, a sense that optimism is lost with this coaching staff. The administration seems to still have it, and in the end, that might be all that matters.
A new coach provides no sure thing. Chances are, that new coach won’t have a better first two seasons than Muschamp delivered in 2016 and 2017.
But change resets that optimism cycle, like a new quarterback, and creates a few more years where the promise of a bright future sustains an upbeat mood looking forward.
A bonus look at the challenge of selecting coaches
Hiring coaches is hard.
This is often lost in the run to fire them. Lots and lots of hires go poorly, often including the ones that were well-regarded. To that end, one might look back to a few years. First 2018, a season where a lot of big programs turned over and with two years of data. That matters because things looked very good for Will Muschamp after his first two years. Then a review of 2016 hires, as Muschamp was in that class.
Both are examined through the rankings Athlon gave them the summer after the hires.
2018
1. Scott Frost, Nebraska: 8-12 thus far
2. Dan Mullen, Florida: A second choice behind Chip Kelly, he’s 19-5, 9-2 this season after a rocky offseason.
3. Chip Kelly, UCLA: 7-15, needs to win out this season to make a bowl.
4. Jimbo Fisher, Texas A&M: 16-7, 7-3 this year needing a massive upset to avoid 7-5
5. Willie Taggart, FSU: 9-12, fired this season.
6. Joe Moorehead, Miss. State: 12-11, needs to win the Egg Bowl to go to the postseason
7. Chad Morris, Arkansas: 4-18, already fired
2016
1. Justin Fuente, Virginia Tech: 32-18, slipped to 6-7 last year, but rallied this season after a 2-2 start
2. Willie Fritz, Tulane: 22-25, has team in back-to-back bowls for the first time since the 1980s
3. Mark Richt, Miami: 26-13, pushed into retirement at the end of last season
4. Matt Campbell, Iowa State: 25-23, resuscitated the ISU program
5. Dino Babers, Syracuse: 22-25, led team to 10 wins last year, currently 4-6
6. Mike Norvell, Memphis: 35-15 after taking over for Fuente
7. D.J. Durkin, Maryland: 10-15, team slipped from 6-7 to 4-8 and was fired after the death of a player
(Kirby Smart was rated No. 10. Muschamp was 24th of 28 coaches, behind at least four who have been fired.)
This story was originally published November 22, 2019 at 12:00 AM.
