ESPN projects South Carolina’s chance to win each football game in 2020
South Carolina’s football team has a tall task this season with the need to bounce back.
The Gamecocks went 4-8 last fall, and with a bowl appearance is the bare minimum expectation, they again are staring down the barrel of a schedule with a terrifically difficult top five games, but based on ESPN’s FPI projections, their chances of bowling remain solid.
FPI gives percentages a team will win every game and then complies them for a total. Overall, The system has the Gamecocks projected to win 5.8 games with a 59 percent chance of a bowl.
Part of the reason for that is a particularly soft bottom of the schedule, where USC is given a 75% or better chance to beat ECU, Wofford, Vanderbilt and Coastal Carolina. Will Muschamp’s team is also favored to beat Missouri (71.5 percent chance to win) and Tennessee (57 percent).
The projected challenge comes in getting past that six-win mark.
The gamecocks have only a 34.3% chance to beat Texas A&M at home and 37.3 to win at Kentucky. The top set of teams, Florida, Georgia, LSU, Clemson, features No game in which USC is giving even a 15% chance of winning.
Strength of schedule overall is rated 18.
A season ago, the same system projected the Gamecocks for 6.1 wins. They lost a senior starting quarterback at the end of the opener, and the slate proved to be even more difficult than expected, with the average FBS opponent winning better than nine games. In the end, USC stumble to 4-8, which led to public discussions of Muschamp’s job security through the end of the season.
The schedule in the fall, assuming every game is played in the midst of the coronavirus pandemic, offers a chance to bounce back to at least a solid record but pulling that off will be far from a cakewalk.
FPI percent chance to win for each 2020 South Carolina football game:
Coastal Carolina: 81.7 percent
East Carolina 86 percent
Missouri 71.5 percent
At Kentucky 37.3 percent
At Florida 13.4 percent
Tennessee 57 percent
Texas A&M 34.3 percent
At Vanderbilt 75.8 percent
Georgia 14.8 percent
At LSU 8 percent
Wofford 96.5 percent
At Clemson 3 percent
This story was originally published April 19, 2020 at 5:30 PM.
