If schedule strength factors into new SEC plan, what it could mean for Gamecocks
Let’s start with the easy part: It’s not yet clear how the SEC plans to fill out its 2020 conference schedules, which expanded from eight to 10 games last week because of the COVID-19 pandemic.
There were some indications it could just involve adding a team’s next two rotating opponents — for South Carolina that’s Auburn and Arkansas — but there was also a report from Sports Illustrated’s Ross Dellinger that a system could be used to bring strength of schedule into the mix.
We don’t know how the conference might determine or use that strength of schedule arrangement, but presumably it would involve balancing things out a little. We can at least try to take a look at where the South Carolina could stack up.
The Gamecocks were set to have one of the most difficult schedules in the country, with LSU joining Clemson, Georgia, Florida and Texas A&M as USC opponents. The reconfigured conference-only look means Clemson comes off the board, along with three gimme games.
It’s assumed USC’s new schedule will keep its original SEC foes: home games vs. Missouri, Tennessee, Texas A&M and Georgia; and road games at Kentucky, Florida, Vanderbilt and LSU.
There are a gaggle of ways to predict strength of schedule, but in this case we’ll use the average opponent rating in Bill Connelly’s preseason S&P rating projections. This is probably a bit more advanced than what the SEC might use, but it will give a decent picture. The metric measures roughly in how much each team’s average opponent would be favored by against an average college football team on a neutral field.
Strength of schedule rankings in the SEC
These factor in only each team’s eight conference opponents on the original schedule. Scores are accumulated from the average opponent rating in Bill Connelly’s preseason S&P rating projections.
1. Arkansas Razorback 15.96
2. Mississippi State Bulldogs 15.39
3. Auburn Tigers 15.36
4. Vanderbilt Commodores 14.73
5. Alabama Crimson Tide 14.43
6. LSU Tigers 14.38
7. South Carolina Gamecocks 14.36
8. Ole Miss Rebels 14.02
9. Georgia Bulldogs 13.24
10. Kentucky Wildcats 11.81
11. Tennessee Volunteers 11.7
12. Florida Gators 11.16
13. Texas A&M Aggies 10.8125
14. Missouri Tigers 9.825
It’s worth noting that the top eight teams in the league are bunched up within about two points of each other. Six SEC East teams are dragged down somewhat by having to play Vanderbilt, a squad that would project as a neutral-field underdog by around nine points or more against every other conference team. (Vandy’s SOS is relatively high because it draws one pretty good SEC West team in Texas A&M and it doesn’t have to play, well, Vanderbilt.)
Getting things fully balanced would be impossible given the division structures, but in an ideal world the Gamecocks could pick up some of the easier foes in the SEC West, since they already have two of the three to four toughest in LSU and Texas A&M. USC still is middle of the pack in terms of its own projected quality in the East, so it might avoid being paired to make a West team’s schedule easier.
At the very least, Vanderbilt and Arkansas should draw each other, while Auburn, Mississippi State and Alabama could use some of the lighter fare from the East. There’s a tricky balancing act because giving a good team (say Auburn) an easier opponent (say Vanderbilt) just ups the level of difficulty for that easier opponent.
Even trying to tackle this makes it clear something arbitrary rather than numerical could produce a cleaner slate. But soon enough the schedule will be out, and we’ll find out if effort was made to balance things out.
This story was originally published August 4, 2020 at 5:55 PM.
