A harder road? How South Carolina’s outlook changed with 2 new SEC West additions
With missing out on three nearly surefire wins and a likely loss from its original schedule, South Carolina’s new draw in a 10-game, conference-only SEC schedule wasn’t going to be nearly as kind.
The Gamecocks didn’t make out quite as well as they could have with Friday’s news, but it could’ve been notably worse as each SEC team received a revamped slate during the coronavirus pandemic.
USC and coach Will Muschamp drew a trip to Ole Miss to face new coach Lane Kiffin and a home game with an Auburn team that’s usually pretty good. Considering the Gamecocks already faced two of the top four teams in the SEC West (LSU and Texas A&M), they caught another one and didn’t quite get the boost of facing one of the conference’s worst teams (Arkansas).
First, it’s worth looking at each opponent.
Auburn went 9-4 last season with an inconsistent offense and a beastly defense. The Tigers are ranked 11th in the preseason coaches poll (maybe a little high). The Tigers have won eight or more games in six of the past seven seasons despite playing in a brutal division.
The Gamecocks project as an 8-point underdog in that game per the SP+ preseason rankings.
Ole Miss is the trickier team to measure. The Rebels went 4-8 last season, a year when they could not play in a bowl and saw Matt Luke fired at season’s end. In theory that makes it an easier game, but there are competing factors.
New coach Lane Kiffin is a wild card and has built good teams at several stops. The Rebels’ roster also has some potential and was 25th in the country in overall talent per 247Sports’ rankings (while the Gamecocks were 21st). Ole Miss was better on defense than offense in 2019, but brings back a dynamic QB in John Rhys Plumlee and a five-star running back in Jerrion Ealy.
The SP+ system projects the Gamecocks as a 1.5-point underdog in Oxford.
The most ideal opponent for the Gamecocks (or anyone in the SEC East) was Arkansas, far and away the worst team in the SEC West. The Razorbacks, however, drew a pair of brutal matchups in Florida and Georgia. If USC could’ve avoided adding any more of those top four Western teams (i.e., getting some combination of Ole Miss, Mississippi State and Arkansas), it would’ve been a big boost.
At the moment, the Gamecocks’ slate features five teams in the top 13 of the preseason coaches poll. The rest of the schedule includes a Tennessee team that won eight games last season, a Kentucky team that won 18 games the past two seasons and a Missouri team that has been .500 or better three years in a row.
South Carolina at the moment projects as an underdog in eight of 10 games in 2020, but will be within five points in two of them and within 8.5 points in two more.
All told, it’s not the best draw. USC missed the potential easiest win and would’ve been favored solidly against either Mississippi school at home (and slightly in Starkville).
But it’s the hand the Gamecocks were dealt, and they can only play it out from here.
South Carolina’s adjusted 2020 football schedule
New games at Ole Miss, home vs. Auburn
Home games: Missouri, Tennessee, Texas A&M, Auburn and Georgia.
Road games: Kentucky, Florida, Vanderbilt, Ole Miss and LSU.
