How ESPN’s FPI metric projects the Gamecocks to finish with new schedule
When ESPN’s FPI originally projected South Carolina’s chances in every game in the 2020 regular season, the Gamecocks looked like a decent bet to make a bowl.
According to the system, South Carolina’s hopes to get to .500 got notably tougher with the new coronavirus-caused reset schedule.
FPI’s listed projected record for the Gamecocks is 3.7-6.3. On the bad side, 3-7 would be tough to swallow, but it wouldn’t be such a large jump to get back to .500. In terms of individual games, the system only favors the Gamecocks in three games, but has about a 1 in 3 or better chance in three more games.
It’s worth breaking down the different categories of games by percent chance to win.
Gamecocks favored:
At Vanderbilt, 78.4 % chance to win
Missouri, 71.5 %
Tennessee, 57 %
This puts a lot of onus on winning the Tennessee game. Missouri played one of its better games against USC in the other Columbia last year, which put the Gamecocks in a tough spot early. Failing to get 3-0 would put USC in a similar spot.
Gamecocks as a modest underdog:
At Ole Miss 37.5 %
At Kentucky 37.3 %
Texas A&M 34.3 %
This set of teams is a bit of a tough break for South Carolina. If Ole Miss and Kentucky were in Columbia, South Carolina would likely be favored or at worst tossups. That said, if South Carolina is a little better than expected, that could give them six highly winnable games.
Gamecocks as a notable underdog:
Auburn 20.3 percent
Had South Carolina been able to trade this home game for say Ole Miss or Kentucky, USC’s staff probably would’ve taken it. This wouldn’t be an easy one by any stretch, but Auburn is always unstable and it is in Columbia.
Longshots at best:
Georgia 14.8 %
At Florida 13.4 %
At LSU 8 %
None of these are great bets. Georgia in Columbia has the history of last season, which both showed South Carolina can pull off the win, but also means UGA’s players will likely be more focused. If USC wins any of them, it would be a massive boost to the season.
The season kicks off in Williams-Brice with Tennessee on Sept. 26.
