Will Muschamp explains the logic behind kicking late field goal vs Tennessee
It was less than three days since South Carolina football coach Will Muschamp made a decision for his team that left some onlookers befuddled.
His team trailed Tennessee by seven, facing a 4th and 12 inside the Vols 30. The most direct option seemed to be that South Carolina could go for the fourth down, keep the drive alive and try to tie things up. If that didn’t convert, USC could play defense, use timeouts and get the ball back in time for another shot at a game-tying drive.
Instead, South Carolina kicked (and made) a field goal with 3:16 left.
“Smart field goal decision by Will Muschamp there. With three minutes left, he brings South Carolina from trailing by a possession to trailing by a possession,” former SBNation College football writer Alex Kirshner wrote on Twitter.
“Did South Carolina really just kick a FG???” ESPN gambling analyst Doug Kezirian tweeted.
“Will Muschamp just kicked a field goal from his 30ish, down 7 with 3 minutes left. ... SOMEBODY EXPLAIN THIS TO ME,” GatorCountry beat writer Nick de la Torre tweeted.
Instead, South Carolina kicked (and made) a field goal with 3:16 left. And Muschamp said that choice was actually the more aggressive play.
“You got over three minutes left,” Muschamp said. “You got fourth and 12. If it’s fourth and 7, we’re going for it. If we don’t have three timeouts, we’re probably going forward at forth and 12. But you have three timeouts and I’ve got great confidence that when we get the ball back, we’re getting the ball back to go win the game. We’re not trying to tie the game. We’re gonna go win the game.”
The approach and explanation sit in a sort of uncanny valley of aggressive vs. conservative play-calling. In either case, the defense would have to get a stop and conserve time, and the offense would have to be able to mount a late touchdown drive. With the kick, the Gamecocks would only have to do that. If they’d gone for the fourth down, they’d still have to win in overtime, but they’d have a (slightly) better chance of getting there.
Muschamp did note he was extremely confident his kicker, Parker White, would hit from 45 yards, a range he’d struggled with his first two years before improving last season.
One win probability calculator (pro-football-reference.com) produced a number that said South Carolina was in better position after the kick than before, but it used NFL numbers as was limited in the scenarios it could project.
But Muschamp seemed dialed in on the scenario he expected to happen had everything gone to plan.
“We kick it off, we call three timeouts and we get the ball back with a minute and a half to go,” Muschamp said, “which is an eternity in college football.”
Things didn’t exactly go to plan.
Tennessee got the ball back with 3:16 on the clock. The Vols hit a toss play for eight yards and then a power run for 19, gaining a first down. By the time USC forced a punt, aided by a pair of penalties, the time on the clock read 1:29.
The Gamecocks would’ve started the drive within their own 20, but the punt rolled into one of the USC blockers and Tennessee recovered. The game was over.
With better defense, South Carolina would’ve saved more time, but the logic is still unusual.
Tennessee had a play earlier in the game that reflected a similar sort of high-risk approach in a high-leverage moment. Facing 3rd and 2, the Vols called a drop-back pass and the ball went to a well-covered receiver running a corner route.
Had that gone incomplete, Tennessee fans might’ve lamented the low-percentage play when there were easier ways to convert third and short. The receiver, however, made a highlight-reel catch, and the decision wasn’t picked over. (South Carolina had a similar throw years ago on the same passing concept against Louisiana Tech, and the missed pass drew ire then.)
In the end, Muschamp’s gamble didn’t work out. It’s not clear if there was any analytical backup used for or against the call to kick the field goal.
But Muschamp was confident in what he foresaw, at least until his team’s miscue robbed him of that last chance.
“I felt like I knew how they would play that situation,” Muschamp said. “They don’t want to throw the ball. They’re going make us use all three timeouts, and they’re gonna punt the ball to us and we’re gonna have the ball with a minute and a half to go. And that’s exactly what happened. Unfortunately didn’t get that opportunity.”
This story was originally published September 29, 2020 at 6:10 AM.
