Why Saturday’s loss to Florida doesn’t really change the picture for the Gamecocks
The beauty of college football is that every game feels like it matters, turning most every Saturday into referendums, a teacup ride of emotion and carnival-like atmosphere at stadiums across the land.
But in truth, many games are not referendums. They’re between teams unequal in situation and advantage of locale, and they play out that way. This brings us to South Carolina hitting the road to Florida and returning with a 14-point defeat.
One can quibble with how some of the Gamecocks’ miscues looked in the 38-24 loss, with a spate of drops, a passing game that ended up inefficient and a defense that got hit so often with big plays that it hardly forced any third downs. One can quibble with the pace of the offense late, though one must also consider the faster alternative might well have meant a game-ending sack or turnover forced into coverage with USC down two touchdowns.
But in the end, Will Muschamp’s team went into the home stadium of a team that was supposed to win by as many as three scores — and Florida won by two TDs. It’s not a “moral victory,” it’s just an expected defeat. It’s a team being seven points away from “just” a moral victory.
Now it might be brought up how this speaks to the state of Muschamp’s program, opening as a 22-point underdog in Year 5 (the line was bet down by a touchdown). But the Gators are a really good team, having gone 21-5 across the previous two seasons, and they were at home.
There’s an irony in that UF coach Dan Mullen was reportedly not all that hot a commodity on the coaching market. Despite programs perpetually looking for their guy, his name gained a reputation as someone who was mentioned in a slew of high-profile searches, but usually found himself back at Mississippi State.
He was, by many accounts, a third choice at Florida behind two coaches who are 16-32 at the jobs they took instead. His recruiting is oft-maligned, but he managed to turn things with some oddly shaped, inherited pieces to work with.
And in truth, this was the least consequential South Carolina-Florida game from the USC side in some time.
Last year’s meeting had the underdog Gamecocks at least leading in the fourth quarter at home. The season prior, a Jake Bentley-led offense was up 17 in the second half in Gainesville before the defense broke.
One might have to go back to 2016 for a less consequential game, when a freshman Bentley was held down by Jim McElwain’s last good team. Before that, the meeting that felt like it had the least impact was probably in Urban Meyer’s second national title season (2008), when the Gators just badly outgunned the Gamecocks.
Perhaps all this says something about where the programs are, but college football is an uneven landscape and it was still, by the numbers, the toughest date on the Gamecocks’ 2020 schedule — it’s the sort of game most teams lose.
The mistakes South Carolina made Saturday most likely cost the team a moral victory. Those same types of miscues actually cost the Gamecocks the week before against Tennessee. If they continue, you can bet they’ll cost against more vulnerable opponents in Columbia such as Texas A&M, Missouri and even Georgia. And they’ll really cost in more winnable road venues such as Ole Miss, Kentucky and a shaky LSU squad.
But that’s part of the beauty of the every-game element of the sport. Nothing is fully written until it happens.
If Will Muschamp’s team keeps losing in the margins, especially against teams it has a real chance against, it’ll cost him his job at some point in the next two years. (This year is unpredictable because of a sport-wide financial crisis). But that has yet to play out, and losing a game most teams will lose doesn’t have all that much impact on what the future holds.
This story was originally published October 4, 2020 at 11:05 AM.
