South Carolina-LSU football prediction: Can the Gamecocks handle good fortune?
The pessimism antennas are up for South Carolina football fans as the Gamecocks prepare to face LSU.
The Gamecocks are coming off a big win? The opposing QB is going to be both a backup and a freshman? The team just got a shiny new playmaker that’s getting a lot of hype?
Most college fans are suspicious of an avalanche of good fortune, and USC faithful are more suspicious than most.
Still, it’s hard to get a read on what LSU is. In theory an offense without its QB is in trouble (Myles Brennan is likely out), but it has been a good offense. The defense has been dreck, but it has NFL-level corners and South Carolina’s offense has been hit-and-miss.
LSU also hasn’t played in two weeks because of a COVID outbreak at Florida.
There’s also the little matter that the Gamecocks don’t often win against LSU, and stringing together success isn’t always easy.
The history of late against backups or freshmen has been at times tricky, to be sure. A look at some of that history with coach Will Muschamp, who has gone 5-5 against Power 5 backups and freshmen as Gamecocks coach.
2019
▪ Vanderbilt: The Commodores played all their QBs. All were bad. Win.
▪ Tennessee: Started a backup, who was pretty decent, then the benched starter came in and went supernova. Loss.
▪ Kentucky: USC drew a backup with a shoulder injury and might well have lost if UK had gone full Wildcat package sooner. Win.
▪ North Carolina: Started a freshman who flourished against USC. Loss.
Overall record: 2-2
2018
No FBS backups faced, unless you count Trevor Lawrence, which you shouldn’t.
2017
▪ Michigan: Didn’t really have a full-time starter, but the Gamecocks defense was fine. Win.
▪ Florida: The Gators started Malik Zaire, who was bad. Win.
▪ Tennessee: Broke in a mostly new starter and scored nine points at home. Win.
Overall record: 3-0
2016
▪ Florida: Austin Appleby had already relieved a poor starter. Loss.
▪ Georgia: Jacob Eason was a five-star freshman who posted just a terrible game in a win. Loss.
▪ Kentucky: Stephen Johnson had recently taken the job, though he wasn’t much of a factor in swinging things. Loss.
Record: 0-3
So it’s a decidedly mixed bag.
The pessimist frets about those unknown QBs, and that wave of good fortune portending less success than there could be. The pessimist sees the perpetual looming danger.
But for now, let’s be optimists.
The pick: South Carolina 34, LSU 30
South Carolina (2-2) at LSU (1-2)
When: 7 p.m. Saturday
Where: Tiger Stadium in Baton Rouge, Louisiana
TV: ESPN
Line: LSU by 7
This story was originally published October 23, 2020 at 5:05 AM.
