What ESPN systems project for South Carolina’s second-half record
When South Carolina’s COVID-altered schedule came out, the focus was on a really tough first have and a, relatively, lighter second half.
The Gamecocks came through the first half at 2-3, which would’ve looked like an accomplishment in the preaseason and looks like less of one now. Only one game the rest of the way projects to have a massive spread, but the Gamecocks are only favored in one of four remaining contests.
And still USC should have some kind of chance because of the topsy-turvy nature of the season if it can start playing better.
ESPN’s FPI has the Gamecocks projected to finish at 4-6, with the caveat the system thinks USC played a bit better than the current record. It has the Gamecocks as the No. 38 team in the country and the coming opponent, Texas A&M, at No. 21, 14 spots lower than the AP poll.
Here’s the percentage chance FPI gives the Gamecocks to win each game:
Texas A&M: 44.6
At Ole Miss: 44.5
Missouri: 63.1
Georgia: 13.2
At Kentucky: 39.2
By that metric, losing both of the next two spells trouble.
Bill Connelly’s SP+ system, a traditionally strong predictive metric isn’t quite as high on the Gamecocks. After a blowout loss to LSU, it has Will Muschamp’s squad at No. 65 nationally, four spots behind UK, 19 spots behind Ole Miss and 46 behind Texas A&M.
Here are the lines projected by SP+
Texas A&M: Aggies by 11.4
At Ole Miss: Rebels by 6
Missouri: Gamecocks by 4
Georgia: Bulldogs by 19.5
At Kentucky: Wildcats by 2.9
Those odds put them close to four wins, depending on how things turn in toss-up game. The Gamecocks were in the 60s and 70s in SP+ in Muschamp’s first two years, but softer schedules allowed for bowl trips. The 2018 team was stronger (No. 20), but undone by a top-10 schedule.
It’s hard to tell how a 4-6 season will be taken. It was probably on the higher end of how things were projected in the preseason, especially with a loss in the Tennessee game. But for now, the Gamecocks road remains treacherous.
