Why first two years of Beamer era won’t be greatest predictor of long-term success
There’s no real way around it: Will Muschamp did a good job on balance in his first two years on the field in South Carolina.
His first season in 2016, he inherited a woefully thin roster, managed to coach the defense into being somewhat OK and exceeded expectations with a bowl trip. Maybe one could quibble with not trying Jake Bentley at quarterback earlier. When the big complaint is not going with a kid four months removed from his junior year of high school, it’s fine.
His second season was puffed up by the schedule to a degree, and a nitpicker will point out that a little more offensive competence could’ve meant a 10-2 regular season. But getting to nine wins with top player Deebo Samuel injured, that’s a success.
It all happened with an offensive coordinator (Kurt Roper) that Muschamp fired after that second regular season in which USC was 8-4. And in the end, success in Years 1 and 2 did almost nothing to save him as he got later in his tenure.
The Gamecocks are setting off on a new path with new coach Shane Beamer. Many hope for a quick turnaround, getting back to at least bowling the next two seasons.
And the strange things is, those years likely won’t have much impact on how his tenure goes.
Unless you’re a mid-major coach moving up, or at a powerhouse school where they get impatient, or do something absolutely historic, those first two years for the most part are gravy. If Beamer gets the Gamecocks to a bowl Years 3, 4 and 5, he’s probably sticking around, even if those first two years are rough.
In Muschamp’s case, ask this: What could he have done those first two years for 7-6 in Year 3, 4-8 in Year 4 and 2-5 to start Year 5 to not be a fireable offense at a school like South Carolina?
If he’d won the SEC, doing something no coach has ever done? That probably keeps him on. Maybe if he won the SEC East, though it might’ve depended how good the team was. But if USC went 10-3 in 2017 and then won 13 of the next 32 games? That probably doesn’t earn Year 6, though maybe the pandemic would’ve helped prevent a dismissal.
In fact, those first two years made things much harder on the school in its process.
After those two seasons that we can admit were relatively good jobs, Muschamp got a raise. He’d been one of the lowest-paid coaches in the SEC. He had a team that looked ready to come back and put up another big season against a 2018 schedule that looked very manageable. USC gave him a deal that got him up to fifth in salary in the conference in the moment, though quickly slipped more toward the middle.
And then things happened. That soft-looking schedule in 2018 ended up being 10th-hardest in the country. USC flat out didn’t play sharp and the defense got hammered with injuries — meaning close losses to Texas A&M and Florida — plus needing late scores to beat Missouri and Ole Miss in shootouts.
Instead of the proof of concept and justification for the raise, USC got 7-6 (notably against a tough schedule) and things went sideways from there.
South Carolina hasn’t had that many recent short-term coaches, but many have been better early and sustaining has been tricky.
Lou Holtz bounced back from the 0-11 start to win eight and nine games. His next two teams went 5-7, and despite a solid start the next year he was eventually pushed to retirement.
Brad Scott won seven games and a bowl in Year 1, then got at least above .500 in Year 3. He was undone by 1-10 in Year 5.
Sparky Woods had teams good enough to bowl in his first couple years. He went 12-19-2 the next three seasons and was gone.
The coaches who managed later-tenure success at South Carolina are Steve Spurrier, who had five solid-to-good teams and then broke through; Joe Morrison, whose Year 2 was good, Years 3 and 4 were not and delivered in 5 and 6 before his death; and Jim Carlen, who started well (two winning seasons), then had two losing seasons and rounded into some strong-to-solid years before off-field conflicts scuttled his tenure.
There are, of course, ancillary benefits to being good right away. It helps recruiting. It helps the school financially. It creates a better mood, which is generally ideal.
But it also means a chance Beamer, like Muschamp, lands a raise and an extension early on, as he will reportedly be among the lowest paid coaches in the conference.
For now, the Gamecocks sit a few long years from when their new coach can really be judged.
