What Vegas Thinks: Why ‘respect for the Gamecocks is fading in the betting market’
After losing back-to-back games to start SEC play, Las Vegas oddsmakers have downgraded the Gamecocks in the sportsbooks. They will be favorites this week with plenty of SEC action to go around. ESPN Chalk gambling writer David Purdum breaks it all down and how the Gamecocks can salvage their reputation.
TS: When we talked about South Carolina-Kentucky, Kentucky was a six-point favorite and ended up winning 16-10. How often does that happen where that line is perfect?
David Purdum: Very, very rarely. Very rarely. People think that the oddsmakers are better than they are. This is the difference between the margin of victory in the game and the closing point spread. Just to give you an example, that one was six and the margin would’ve been zero, right? But, if it was eight, it would’ve been two, so the margin, and it’s almost on average double digits or around 10 points — so the oddsmakers and the line doesn’t always represent the margin of victory by any means.
TS: How have the Gamecocks’ power ratings changed over the season in the sportsbooks after four games?
DP: They’re dropping. They opened up as a nine-point favorite over Troy this week. That line has been bet down to seven. This is a Troy team that’s coming off a loss to Louisiana Monroe. Troy was a three-point favorite in that game over Louisiana ‘Roe and lost straight up and now South Carolina’s only a touchdown favorite over Troy and it seems like the money has been on Troy, early money. So, the respect for the Gamecocks is fading in the betting market.
TS: That touches on my next question. What does that say about how the oddsmakers are viewing the Gamecocks and how the betting is going?
DP: They’re fading in the power ratings. This week’s game being a prime example of them being a nine-point favorite and then all of a sudden, it looks like money comes in and bets down, bets on Troy and then moves that number down to seven. There’s just not a lot of belief in the Gamecocks right now.
TS: Do you think there will be people who bet on Troy enough to continue moving that line or it’ll eventually stabilize?
DP: It has stabilized when I was looking at it earlier (Tuesday). That line from nine to seven, it’s not necessarily a really big move. Eight is not a most common margin of victory as some of your other ones: your sevens, your 10s, your threes, etcetera. So while dropping two points is not that big of a thing now, if it were to go under seven, then your guess is as good as mine whether it’ll happen. That would be pretty notable because obviously seven is a key number for bettors when they’re going to win by more than a touchdown or not.
TS: Is there anything South Carolina can do to change their perception in oddsmakers’ eyes?
DP: Win. Yeah. If they start playing better, right? Not only have they lost, but they haven’t been playing very well and their brand of football they’re playing is kind of defensive, low-scoring football is not very attractive to the betting market, for sure.
The State: Talk about that Alabama-Ole Miss and some of those games that’ll be going on in the SEC this week.
DP: That Mississippi-Alabama game is very interesting. Our friends at Circa Sports, the Las Vegas sportsbook who really post the most influential and the most college football lines on the market week-to-week, they went up with -20. Alabama -20, and the bettors thought that was way too much. In fact, Circa Sports director Matt Metcalf told me that they took over 10 limit bets. They’re taking $3,000 per bet on Sunday. Those limits increase through the week, but they took 10 limit bets on Ole Miss right when they posted it and zero on Alabama, so that number dropped all the way down to 14½. I see a couple 15s on there, most of the books have 14½, so the difference between what the oddsmakers thought Alabama is and Mississippi, the bettors disagreed with it.
