Final thoughts, prediction as South Carolina looks to snap skid against Troy
And so the honeymoon phase has ended.
Shane Beamer knew it would happen. We (the reporters) knew it would happen. The fans knew it would happen.
Well, it happened.
South Carolina (2-2, 0-2 SEC) heads into a crucial matchup against Troy (2-2, 0-1 Sun Belt) not so much reeling as the Gamecocks are in search of an identity.
USC’s offense hasn’t been up to snuff through four weeks. It doesn’t take an analytics guru to tell you that. The Gamecocks currently rank 13th in the Southeastern Conference in total offense — ahead of only Vanderbilt.
The return of Luke Doty has helped some. Doty, who’s still working back to full strength after a foot injury sidelined him for roughly a month, was largely sharp in losses to undefeated Kentucky and No. 2 Georgia. He completed 30 of his 51 throws. Doty’s 155.5 yards per contest would also slot him 12th of 25 quarterbacks in the SEC had he played in 75% of USC’s games to date.
South Carolina’s lauded running game, though, has been anything but dynamic over the past three weeks. The Gamecocks haven’t eclipsed the 100-yard mark as a team since the season opener against Eastern Illinois. Kevin Harris — who continues to rebound from an offseason back procedure — currently leads the team in touches (35), but ranks fourth in yards (92) and yards per carry (2.63).
Yet for what South Carolina hasn’t been able to do offensively, the Gamecocks defense has been an efficient ballhawking machine through the first four weeks. USC currently ranks tied for sixth nationally in total takeaways and tied for 16th in turnover margin.
Safety Jaylan Foster continues to play at an All-American level as he’s tied for the national lead with four picks this season, while the Gamecocks defense collectively forced four Kentucky fumbles last week.
Troy heads into Saturday with a noted reputation as a giant killer. The Trojans marched into Baton Rouge in 2017 and beat Ed Orgeron and LSU on their home turf.
But that was a different era under a different coach. Since Neal Brown left to be the head coach at West Virginia, former Auburn assistant Chip Lindsey has yet to get Troy over the five-win hump in his two-plus years at the helm.
Lindsey and the Trojans come to Columbia one week removed from being throttled by a UL-Monroe team that’s been among the worst programs in the FBS over the past five years and is in its first year under former Auburn head coach Terry Bowden.
Troy does head into the week with a defense that ranks No. 26 nationally and is surrendering just 15.5 points per game over its four contests.
But the Trojan offense has had its share of struggles. Troy ranks last in the Sun Belt and fourth to last nationally in rushing offense. The Trojans’ passing offense, though, has been appreciably better as it sits No. 41 in the country and fourth in the Sun Belt.
Change, at its core, takes time.
Lou Holtz was 0-11 in his first season at South Carolina before the Gamecocks jumped to 8-4 and 9-3 the next two years. Steve Spurrier won seven games his first year at USC, but it took him until his sixth season to reach the nine-win mark. Muschamp was somehwhere in between Holtz and Spurrier in going 6-7 his first season and reaching nine wins his second campaign.
Beamer, by contrast, took over a South Carolina program that won two games in 2020 and just six total in Muschamp’s final two seasons.
USC’s first-year head coach spent the bulk of this week participating in varying levels of damage control. He implored fans and those around the program not to panic after back-to-back losses. He explained the USC staff doesn’t have any sights on blowing up the offensive system or going as far as changing playcallers four games into the first year under a new regime.
Beamer’s honeymoon phase, of course, has ended with an 0-2 start in the SEC. Now begin the ebbs and flows of marriage.
A loss on Saturday would certainly justify most every level of panic. A comfortable win, though, would do wonders in ensuring Beamer and South Carolina fans maintain a happy union — at least for the time being.
— Prediction: South Carolina 24, Troy 13 —
South Carolina vs Troy: What time, what channel
Who: South Carolina Gamecocks (2-2, 0-2 SEC) vs. Troy Trojans (2-2, 0-1 Sun Belt)
Where: Williams-Brice Stadium in Columbia, S.C.
When: 3:30 p.m. Saturday
TV: SEC Network
Line: USC by 7
This story was originally published October 1, 2021 at 12:00 AM.
