What Vegas Thinks: Why Tennessee point spread vs South Carolina is ‘on the high side’
After a 23-14 win over Troy last week, South Carolina returns to SEC play and travels to Tennessee for a noon game (ESPN2) on Saturday.
The Gamecocks opened a 12-point underdog in the contest. ESPN Chalk gambling writer David Purdum sheds light on the betting history between the Gamecocks and the Volunteers over the past few years.
The State: The oddsmakers expected South Carolina and Troy to be a close game. The win margin was a little wider than the final line, though. Did that help the Gamecocks in any way in terms of perception?
David Purdum: No, I don’t think so. It’s going to take a lot more than just that to change the perception. Their power ratings right now are kind of where they are. It’s going to take significant improvement, especially offensively, before we’ll see any kind of major adjustments for the Gamecocks.
TS: South Carolina opened as a 12-point underdog against Tennessee, though it looks like it’s down to 10. Given the fact that both squads have a 3-2 overall record on the year, how do their power ratings compare?
DP: Twelve is on the very high end of the opening numbers. A lot of books kind of waited and opened closer to 10. It has ticked up between 10 and 10½. We’ve seen an impressive Tennessee team last week. They seem to be ascending while South Carolina is still trying to find what they’re going to do the rest of the season. Ten seems like a decent number. It is one of the higher that we’ve seen in a while. These teams have played some close games recently. The spread the last two years was four points. Tennessee has of course won both those games, so 10 is on the high side in terms of what we’ve seen between these two programs recently.
TS: How has South Carolina done historically against the spread vs Tennessee?
DP: Overall in their last 25 meetings, they’re like 9-13-3 against the spread, three pushes, so it’s not a terrible, not a great number. They’re 8-17 overall against Tennessee, so it hasn’t been a really good run for South Carolina.
TS: Like you said, the Vols have won the last two meetings, but how often have the Gamecocks been an underdog in this game over the past five to 10 years or so?
DP: They’ve been an underdog 16 times against Tennessee since 1995. They’re 3-13 in those games, 7-6-3 against the spread, so a very middling performance as an underdog in terms of against the spread. They’ve been an underdog only once since 2017 which was last year.
TS: Georgia at Auburn seems intriguing, but from what you’re seeing, which other SEC games are of high interest?
DP: I think whoever Alabama plays is always going to be a good game. Of course, they’ve got A&M this week on the road. Will this be Alabama’s biggest test? Oddsmakers don’t necessarily think so. They’re about a 17½-point favorite. Last week, we talked about Ole Miss and how that line had dropped so much. People thought Ole Miss was going to give Alabama a run. Of course, that didn’t happen. Georgia-Auburn, of course, will be the marquee game. That line came down a little bit from what it was opened at the Circa Sportsbook that we always talk about. It’s one of the first ones that opens. I think they opened at 15, 16 and it’s all the way down to 14½, in some spots, which is a little surprising as great as Georgia looked last week against Arkansas and as up-and-down as Auburn’s been. They pulled out a win against LSU, which is a good win, but the struggles against Georgia State were kind of eye-opening.
