What Vegas Thinks: Gamecocks earn respect from oddsmakers after routing Florida
After a 40-17 upset win over Florida, it seems South Carolina’s perception has changed a bit in the oddsmakers’ eyes. That much is reflected in this week’s betting line against Missouri, where the Gamecocks were a 1-point favorite as of Wednesday morning.
ESPN Chalk gambling writer David Purdum provides insight on the aftermath of the Gamecocks’ lopsided victory and what it means for the team moving forward.
The State: What a weekend for South Carolina. How often does a three-touchdown underdog win in a given season?
David Purdum: Not often, for sure, especially in conference play. That’s one of the bigger upsets in conference play this season. We’ve had some conference upsets. Illinois was a big underdog against somebody. We’ve had some bigger upsets, but for it to be a conference game and then for it to be a nearly three-touchdown underdog, that’s pretty rare.
TS: Does a win like that affect South Carolina’s power ratings? Or did the previous 8 games matter too much?
DP: They’re going to look at the overall picture, certainly, but that was an impressive win over a team that was favored and had some respect from oddsmakers until last week, so I would think that they moved up a little bit. I would think that this week’s line movement has kind of suggested that because you have Missouri opening up as a small favorite and that line’s gone all the way across to where South Carolina is now a small favorite. They haven’t been a favorite in SEC games very often lately, so that does show a little bit of respect. I would add that Missouri was 0-8 against the spread before last week and then they covered against Georgia for the first time with a field goal late in the game. A little bit of disrespect for Missouri and probably some respect for South Carolina with the early line movement.
TS: How do you see the betting line, depending on which book you look at, fluctuating, if at all, before Saturday?
DP: I think that South Carolina earned a little respect and I think there’s probably been a little disrespect toward Missouri. They’ve had such a struggle against the spread and they really got routed last week against a good Georgia team, so I think it’s a little of both. Having already moved that direction, it kind of would surprise me if it moved back to Missouri. I don’t think it’ll get any higher than maybe South Carolina at 2, 2½. I wouldn’t think it would get to 3.
TS: Along that line, how often, and why, does a betting line settle at 1 or 2 points?
DP: Because that three is the key number. That’s the most common margin of victory, and for it to get to three is way more important than for it to get to 1, 1½, 2, 2½. Once you get to three, it’s a significant move because you expose all those early numbers, and if it were to land on 3, the bookmaker has a chance at losing on both sides to that. Three is just such a key number, so that’s why it doesn’t move through that number as often. It’s not as key in college as it is in the NFL but still, three is the most common margin of victory, so bookmakers pay attention to that number.
TS: How does this betting line compare to previous years when the Gamecocks and Tigers have played?
DP: Last year, South Carolina was a 4½-point underdog, home underdog. In 2019, Missouri was favored again. Last time I have that South Carolina was favored over Missouri was 2016. They were 4½ points the favorite over Missouri, and they won 31-21. They’ve been underdogs in four straight games against Missouri, which is kind of surprising. I didn’t expect to see that.
