What Vegas Thinks: How Bo Nix’s absence affects South Carolina-Auburn betting line
After an impressive win over Florida, South Carolina fell to Missouri 31-28 over the weekend. The Gamecocks return home to face Auburn, which has lost quarterback Bo Nix to an injury. ESPN Chalk gambling writer David Purdum describes the betting impact of Nix’s absence.
The State: For as impressive as South Carolina’s win over Florida was, the Gamecocks couldn’t pull out a win over Missouri. What do the oddsmakers make of South Carolina’s up and down season?
David Purdum: I think that they have been pretty well gauged in on South Carolina, trying to figure out how good they are, knowing that they’re going to be inconsistent. Last week’s impressive win over Florida, I doubt that it affected South Carolina’s power ratings that much. Then of course the next game, lose to Missouri, it’s going to stay down.
TS: Auburn is a 7½-point favorite over South Carolina. With Bo Nix out for the season, do you think that number will move?
DP: It opened at 10½. They came out Sunday before Nix tweeted, the news started to get out that he was out. Now, there was obviously speculation, when they put that number out, that Nix was going to be out, but even so they opened at 10½. All the early movement has been towards South Carolina. Some of it is a reaction to the actual news that Nix is, indeed, out. Some of it is anticipation and some of it is probably money coming in on South Carolina.
TS: What are the oddsmakers’ overall impressions of Auburn?
DP: Auburn will, obviously, take a step back. I’d say that three-point move from 10½ to 7½, I think there was speculation that Nix was going to be out even when they made Auburn 10½, so I would say they maybe view him to be about maybe a point, maybe two points from their power ratings.
TS: With two games in the regular season left, what do the SEC championship odds look like? I’m guessing Georgia’s still pretty firm in the lead?
DP: Yeah, Georgia’s the favorite. They’re at -205, meaning you have to bet $205 to win $100. Alabama is +175, second. The next closest, any other team that really has any kind of chance, is Ole Miss at 45-to-1. It’s all headed to Georgia and Alabama. We even have an early point spread on that projected SEC title matchup. Georgia is about a 3½-point favorite over Alabama at Caesars Sportsbook right now. Obviously, that matchup has to occur for those bets to see action.
TS: Speaking of early lines, are there any for next week’s Clemson-Carolina rivalry game?
DP: No, there’s not another one up there yet. It just may not be enough interest in that game. Getting so close, they’ll probably just put one up, we’ll get one on Sunday for sure when they come out about 2:00 (p.m.).
