How Spencer Rattler affects 2022 betting odds, win totals for South Carolina football
Former Oklahoma quarterback Spencer Rattler brought national attention and high expectations to Columbia when he transferred to the South Carolina football team last December.
Entering the 2022 season, he could also make USC one of the more intriguing teams to bet on week to week in the SEC, according to ESPN Chalk gambling writer David Purdum.
“How Spencer plays — if he exceeds expectations — will have a lot to say in how the odds each week are for the Gamecocks,” Purdum told The State.
USC overachieved just about everyone’s expectations, including Las Vegas oddsmakers’, in coach Shane Beamer’s debut season. The Gamecocks were pegged for 3.5 wins but finished 7-6 with a Duke’s Mayo Bowl victory over North Carolina. They were also 7-6 against the spread.
Now, South Carolina enters 2022 with its highest preseason win total (6.5) since the 2018 season, when former coach Will Muschamp’s squad was projected for seven wins and ended up going 7-6 with a final AP ranking of No. 24.
Purdum sees that three-win jump as both a market adjustment after Beamer’s Year 1 turnaround and a nod toward the undeniable skills of Rattler, who starred at Oklahoma as a freshman before flaming out as a sophomore.
“I would assume he’s got a little bit of a chip on your shoulder now, right?” Purdum said. “So going into a new environment, getting him a fresh start, I expect him to play well this year. I really do. He’s a talented player.”
The odds of USC going over 6.5 wins are -140 (bet $140 to win another $100 and net $240), and the odds of USC staying under 6.5 wins are +120 (bet $120 to win another $100 and net $220). For a 12-game schedule, Purdum sees 6.5 as a fair number.
“I think a bowl game and a winning season are probably the bar for them right now,” he said. “Anything more than that would definitely be exceeding expectations.”
Here are more betting nuggets leading into South Carolina’s season opener against Georgia State on Saturday (7:30 p.m., ESPN+) in Williams-Brice Stadium. The Gamecocks are a consensus 12-point favorite against the Panthers.
South Carolina’s SEC championship odds
South Carolina finished 3-5 in the SEC last season, which tied the Gamecocks for fourth in the East Division with Missouri behind eventual national champion Georgia (8-1), Kentucky (5-3), and Tennessee (4-4). Their 2022 outlook?
“Middle of the pack,” Purdum said.
South Carolina is +10,000 to make the SEC championship, which is fifth among East Division teams. Georgia (+120), Kentucky (+4,000), Tennessee (+5,000) and Florida (+5,000) all have better odds, while USC beats out Missouri (+50,000) and lowly Vanderbilt (+100,000).
“You’re not in the realm of Georgia,” Purdum said. “But then again, nobody really is. If you look at the odds to win the national championship, you’ll see Alabama, Ohio State and Georgia and then everybody else. There’s a big gap.”
Alabama is -140 to make the SEC title game out of the West Division, followed by Texas A&M (+1,600), Ole Miss (+3,000) and LSU (+4,000).
How often will USC be favored in SEC play?
Purdum joked that South Carolina “didn’t get any help” from its SEC West crossover opponents this season. Indeed, traveling to No. 19 Arkansas in Week 2 and hosting No. 6 Texas A&M in Week 7 isn’t the easiest draw.
Purdum sees South Carolina as a clear betting underdog in both of those matchups, as well as its divisional home games against No. 3 Georgia and Tennessee and its divisional road games at No. 20 Kentucky and Florida.
Their best opportunities of being favored? Home against Missouri in Week 8 (last year’s matchup was a pick ’em game) and at Vanderbilt in Week 9 (USC was -18.5 last year).
“That’s a difficult schedule,” Purdum said. “Six of their eight conference games, I’d expect them to be underdogs. And in some of those they’ll be close to double digits if not more.”
Over or under 6.5 wins?
That aforementioned SEC schedule makes South Carolina’s season-long win total a tricky bet. It also makes early home games against Georgia State, Charlotte and South Carolina State an absolute necessity.
“They’re going to be underdogs in six of the eight (SEC) games, so they really cannot afford a slip-up,” Purdum said. “And they shouldn’t slip up against a Georgia State or a Charlotte or a South Carolina State. Those are three wins right there.”
Vanderbilt seems like a comfortable fourth win, considering the Gamecocks snuck past the Commodores on the road last year, while Missouri is a reasonable target for a fifth win.
Even if those games go as planned, though, Purdum said the rest are dicey. Could the Gamecocks win two more out of Arkansas, Georgia, Kentucky, Texas A&M, Florida, Tennessee and No. 4 Clemson, their rival and final regular-season opponent of 2022?
It might take some Rattler magic.
South Carolina vs. Georgia State game info
- Who: USC (0-0) vs. Georgia State (0-0)
- When: 7:30 p.m. Saturday
- Where: Williams-Brice Stadium in Columbia, SC
- Stream: SEC Network Plus and ESPN+
- Line: USC by 12
This story was originally published August 31, 2022 at 12:57 PM.
