Upset alert? Final thoughts, prediction as South Carolina travels to face UK Wildcats
The Shane (Beamer) train is heading to the Bluegrass State this week.
South Carolina charges back into the heart of Southeastern Conference play Saturday with a date at No. 13 Kentucky (7:30 p.m., SEC Network) and an attempt at notching the first ranked win in Beamer’s tenure.
“We’ve got a big challenge this Saturday up in Lexington,” Beamer said. “Heck of a team that Coach (Mark) Stoops has. Really playing well in all three phases.”
This isn’t your father’s Wildcats. Well, maybe the Hal Mumme air-raid version.
Kentucky has earned a reputation for grounding, pounding and out-physicaling teams under Stoops. This year’s UK offense is an almost direct inverse.
Quarterback Will Levis and the Wildcats rank fourth in the SEC in passing offense, good for what would be far and away the highest finish since Stoops has been head coach. The talented trio of Virginia Tech transfer Tayvion Robinson and freshman receivers Dane Key and Barion Brown have only helped see that unit take strides lost, really, since Mumme was the head coach at Kentucky in the early 2000s.
Some of that comes out of necessity. Kentucky’s offensive line has been leaky at best this fall following years of efficiency under Stoops. It currently ranks last in the SEC in sacks allowed (19), and only two Wildcats linemen rank among the top 70 pass blockers in the league, per Pro Football Focus.
“They’ve got guys that are long, that can run and catch,” USC defensive coordinator Clayton White said on Wednesday. “Welcome to the SEC.”
South Carolina, too, has shown a more recent propensity and comfort in airing out the ball with Spencer Rattler at quarterback.
The Gamecocks are on pace for an almost 50% increase in passing plays of 10 or more yards this year, while Rattler’s 224 passing yards per game rank sixth among SEC signal-callers.
Running back MarShawn Lloyd’s emergence has also alleviated some pressure in the passing game over the last two weeks. Lloyd has recorded 249 yards and four touchdowns rushing over his last two games against Charlotte and S.C. State. He added another three catches for 11 yards and a score over that span as well.
South Carolina has had its struggles running the ball this season. It ran for no more than 92 yards its first three games against Georgia State, Arkansas and UGA. It’s also averaging just 2.24 yards per carry in its two SEC contests this fall.
That has to change.
“It’s just such a tough, tough, tough defense,” South Carolina offensive coordinator Marcus Satterfield said of Kentucky. “They’re where they’re supposed to be. I know they got out of some gaps last week against Ole Miss, but that’s a rarity.”
The history of the South Carolina-Kentucky series is well-documented.
The Gamecocks dominated the annual meeting for the bulk of the teams’ existence in the SEC before Stoops took over as the Wildcats’ head coach in 2013. He’s since won seven of eight meetings with South Carolina. USC hasn’t won in Lexington since 2012 — Joker Phillips’ final year as head coach.
It remains to be seen how healthy Kentucky is on Saturday. Reports have swirled that quarterback Will Levis might be battling a foot/ankle injury in addition to a dislocated finger on his non-throwing hand.
With Levis’ status up in the air, Vegas lines shifted the game’s mark from 10 points to six as of Friday night. That, while it isn’t perfect, is a good indicator of how productive Levis can be.
“We’re prepared if he does, we’re prepared if he doesn’t,” Beamer said on his weekly radio show on Thursday night. “They’ve got a great team around him, with some dynamic receivers, a great running back, a big, physical offensive line, so they pose a lot of challenges, regardless of what’s at quarterback. But obviously he’s a first-round draft pick for a reason.”
There was some panic after a 1-2 start, but the Gamecocks have largely righted the ship. This, though, is a measuring stick for Shane Beamer and a squad that has yet to really compete against Top 25 teams in Beamer’s brief tenure.
I’m going on a hunch here, but I think this ends up being the game South Carolina steals. Give me the Gamecocks in Lexington — especially if Levis can’t go.
Full steam ahead.
— Prediction: South Carolina 24, No. 13 Kentucky 18 —
This story was originally published October 8, 2022 at 7:00 AM.
