South Carolina faces most lopsided point spread against Tennessee in 23 years
The last time South Carolina was this big of an underdog to Tennessee, Josh Heupel was an Oklahoma quarterback and Shane Beamer was a Virginia Tech long snapper.
In other words: Point spreads like this don’t happen often.
Heupel’s No. 5 Volunteers are rolling into Columbia as a consensus 21.5-point betting favorite against Beamer’s Gamecocks on Saturday night, per VegasInsider.
In an annual SEC rivalry dating back to 1992, that is Tennessee’s largest point spread against South Carolina since Oct. 30, 1999, when the Gamecocks visited Neyland Stadium as a whopping 33-point underdog to the reigning national champion Volunteers.
That 33-point spread (which South Carolina covered in a 23-point loss) remains the biggest of any game for USC in modern program history, per Odds Shark data stretching back to 1990.
This Saturday’s spread is going to fall about 12 points short of that mark, but it’s still USC’s worst against Tennessee in 23 years — and a snapshot of where both SEC East Division teams stand with two games remaining in the regular season.
Tennessee debuted at No. 1 in the inaugural 2022 College Football Playoff rankings after starting 8-0 with a memorable upset win over Alabama.
Even after a loss at Georgia, the Vols (9-1, 5-1 SEC) remain in the CFP conversation thanks to an elite offense spearheaded by quarterback Hendon Hooker, a Heisman Trophy candidate, and wide receiver Jalin Hyatt, a South Carolina native.
USC also hit a mid-season hot streak, scoring their first AP Top 25 ranking since 2018 after consecutive wins against Kentucky and Texas A&M brought the team’s record to 5-2.
But it’s been mostly downhill for Beamer and company since. South Carolina lost its No. 25 ranking after a home loss to Missouri the following week and got routed at Florida last weekend, falling down 21-0 in the first quarter and ultimately losing 38-6 in The Swamp.
Sandwiched in between those losses was a win at Vanderbilt that clinched bowl eligibility for a second straight season under Beamer, but South Carolina (6-4, 3-4 SEC) still enters Saturday on a downward trajectory.
USC’s 21.5-point underdog status against Tennessee stands out in a series that’s narrowed in recent seasons. The Volunteers have won 21 of 30 overall meetings since South Carolina joined the SEC in 1992, but USC has won seven of the last 14 meetings and three of the last six.
Eight of the last 10 South Carolina-Tennessee games have been decided by no more than six points, and South Carolina has been favored on the road at Tennessee as recently as 2019.
But now, Las Vegas oddsmakers have plenty of trust in Tennessee, which is playing arguably its best season to date since winning the 1998 BCS championship. The Volunteers’ largest point spread against South Carolina post-1999 and pre-2022 was 17 points during the 2015 season.
South Carolina is seeking its largest upset since beating No. 3 Georgia on the road in overtime in 2019 and largest home upset since beating No. 5 Georgia in Williams-Brice Stadium in 2012.
In 15 previous games as an underdog of 21 points or more, South Carolina is 1-14 overall and 9-6 against the spread. The most recent of those games came earlier this season when South Carolina hosted now-No. 1 Georgia as a 25-point home underdog and lost 48-7.
Despite a winning record against the spread in such games, bettors aren’t counting on USC to cover against Tennessee. Tennessee has 73% of all bets and 81% of all money on bets against the spread, per VegasInsider.
A small group of bettors is laying down money on a South Carolina upset, though. Despite only picking up 7% of the straight-up win-loss money line bets for the game, South Carolina has 96% of the money on such bets.
USC is +2,182 to beat Tennessee. That means a successful $100 bet on a South Carolina victory Saturday night would earn a bettor an extra $2,182.
South Carolina is 5-5 against the spread this season and 3-3 against the spread at home, while Tennessee is 8-2 against the spread this season and 2-1 against the spread on the road.
Next USC football game
Who: No. 5 Tennessee (9-1, 5-1 SEC) at South Carolina (6-4, 3-4 SEC)
When: 7 p.m. Saturday
Where: Williams-Brice Stadium, Columbia
TV: ESPN
