Final thoughts and a prediction ahead of South Carolina’s football game vs. Vanderbilt
With its bowl hopes still intact, South Carolina (3-6, 1-5 SEC) will welcome Vanderbilt to Williams-Brice Stadium on Saturday.
If the Commodores (2-8, 0-6 SEC) beat the Gamecocks for the first time since 2008, South Carolina would fall to last in the SEC East standings. USC would be in danger of finishing with the worst conference record, something that hasn’t happened in eight years.
South Carolina is favored by 14 points over Vandy. The game will kick off at noon on SEC Network.
Those are the facts. Here are some thoughts.
1. What’s fair with South Carolina’s defense?
I struggle with this every week. It’s easy to get swept up in the stats that show how bad South Carolina’s defense has played.
I won’t bore you with the official numbers. But very few teams in America give up more total yards or more passing yards than South Carolina. The Gamecocks are around the median for rushing defense, despite giving up 225 yards to Jacksonville State last week.
But that right there shows how these stats can be skewed. Yes, JSU — a Conference USA squad — ran for over 200 yards on coach Shane Beamer’s defense. But Jacksonville State needed 57 attempts to get there — which amounts to less than four yards a carry. Still not great, but also not a reason to burn everything to the ground.
South Carolina’s defense is young. The Gamecocks’ three starting safeties are Jalon Kilgore (freshman), DQ Smith (sophomore) and Nick Emmanwori (sophomore). It’s a given the Gamecocks will give up a deep touchdown every game. That’s the cost of youth.
What should not be a given is letting Jacksonville State convert 53% of its third-down conversions.
“It was very frustrating. We were 0-for-6 on 3rd and 1-2,” defensive coordinator Clayton White said. “We missed tackles on second down three times to make (what should be) 3rd and 7 into 3rd and 1-2. … It does go back and make you look at yourself like, ‘What is going on?’ ”
And that’s what I think is fair about this South Carolina defense. There is just little confidence that they’re going to get off a field, that they’re going to hold an opponent to a field goal instead of a touchdown, that they’re going to make the crucial stop.
Now, after Stone Blanton’s game-sealing interception last week, perhaps that’s changing.
But there was something interesting said on Thursday’s “Carolina Calls” radio show about this. Host Todd Ellis brought up a stat that South Carolina has scored over 37 points in its last five home games, and Beamer knew even 37 points wouldn’t guarantee him a victory.
“You’d like to feel that you’re playing good enough defense where that’s gonna be enough to win a football game,” he said.
2. Let’s do a draft update
Xavier Legette will be off to the NFL in a few months, probably as a day-two pick but perhaps he could slip into the first round. After his 217-yard performance last week and how glowingly South Carolina’s coaches speak of him, NFL teams will clamor over Legette.
Quarterback Spencer Rattler — most likely — will follow Legette. When I arrived in Columbia a few weeks ago, I thought there was a chance Rattler might spend another year at South Carolina.
My thinking was this: The 2023 quarterback class is loaded. According to The Athletic and other sites, Rattler is a day-three (rounds 4-7) pick, at best, and might not even be a top-15 quarterback in the draft.
Best-case scenario, he turns into Stetson Bennett and is drafted in the fourth round, signing a four-year contract worth just over a million a year. That’s probably equal to, or even less, than what he would make from NIL at South Carolina.
But the way the coaching staff has talked about Rattler this season, it strikes me that he’s leaving. Heck, Beamer made it a point to mention that a Denver Broncos scout was in his office asking about Rattler. Plus, after the beating he’s taken this year, Rattler might be OK moving on.
The big question mark this offseason will be wide receiver Antwane “Juice” Wells. After a remarkable 2022, Wells followed Rattler back to Columbia for his senior season. Problem is: Wells has been out for most of the season with an injury.
He will now have to learn how much NFL stock has dropped with the injury and if the upside — and NIL money — of a great redshirt senior season at South Carolina is worth it.
3. Vanderbilt is not good
Ellis, the Gamecocks’ play-by-play broadcaster — brought up a good point on the “Carolina Calls” show Thursday. For South Carolina, and for any SEC team, the Vanderbilt game stinks. You get no credit for beating the Commodores and will get ridiculed for losing. It’s a lose-lose situation.
But a team should get ridiculed for losing to this Vanderbilt team.
It’s playing a backup quarterback. Its defense gives up more yards than South Carolina (which is saying something). And even the receivers that Beamer and others have touted aren’t better than what the Gamecocks saw from Florida, Missouri and Texas A&M.
“I don’t really think they’re all that,” USC cornerback O.D. Fortune said of Vandy’s receivers. “They just have (a lot of) depth in the room.”
The Commodores are 2-8 for a reason. They’ve lost six-straight games. They gave up 31 points to Auburn. They have not won a road game. They have not played in a one-score conference game.
They should not be a threat to South Carolina.
4. Do we see LaNorris Sellers?
A couple plays every game, Vanderbilt puts in sophomore Walter Taylor at quarterback. He is 6-foot-7, 235 pounds — more of a defensive lineman than a signal caller.
To prepare for the few times he’ll come on the field, South Carolina has used freshman quarterback LaNorris Sellers (6-3, 245 pounds) to simulate Taylor. And, according to White, Sellers has given the Gamecocks defense “too good of a look.”
It will be interesting to see if Sellers plays on Saturday, especially if the Gamecocks go up big. In his only action of the season, the Florence native wowed Williams-Brice with a spectacularly thrown 50-yard touchdown and didn’t have an incompletion.
Even better: There’s no more need for precaution. Because Sellers has only played in one game this season, he could play in every game for the rest of the year and still not burn his redshirt.
PREDICTION: South Carolina 42, Vanderbilt 27
