Five final thoughts, score prediction ahead of South Carolina vs. Missouri game
No. 21 South Carolina (6-3, 4-3 SEC) returns to Williams-Brice Stadium for the penultimate time this season, facing off against a No. 23 Missouri squad (7-2, 3-2 SEC) that it hasn’t beaten since 2018.
Kickoff will be at 4:15 p.m. and the game will air on SEC Network.
Those are some facts. Here are some thoughts.
1. Pretty simple why the offense has improved
It would be a heck of a lot easier to explain the resurgence of South Carolina’s offense after a mostly-ugly first seven games if there was a defining moment to point to.
A scheme change. A quarterback change. An offensive coordinator change. An injury. Something. Anything.
But there is nothing major, which is partly infuriating and partly incredible.
The same South Carolina offense that scored three points against Ole Miss, that totaled just 69 second-half yards against Oklahoma, is the same Gamecocks’ offense that hung 44 on Texas A&M and put up over 450 yards at Vanderbilt.
So what happened? Offensive coordinator Dowell Loggains summed it up perfectly.
“If you wanna be a kick-ass football team, you’ve gotta figure out ways to not kick your own ass,” Loggains said.
It’s true. South Carolina has not suddenly received some influx of talent or athleticism. It has just stopped doing things that make offense harder. Let’s take a took at some stats from the two games before the bye week — at Alabama and at Oklahoma — and the two games after the bye week — vs. Texas A&M and at Vanderbilt.
BEFORE BYE: 4 turnovers, 8 offensive penalties, 10 sacks allowed.
AFTER BYE: 2 turnovers, 6 offensive penalties and no sacks allowed.
2. Third downs are becoming pretty easy
Let’s continue with the theme of offense, beginning with one of the most-remarkable stats of the season.
Last week against Vanderbilt, the Gamecocks offense was 9 of 12 (75%) on third down. That’s unheard of.
How much of an outlier is it? Here’s what South Carolina’s third-down percentage was in every other game this season: 28% (Old Dominion), 30% (Kentucky), 25% (LSU), 36% (Akron), 31% (Ole Miss), 47% (Alabama), 33% (Oklahoma), 31% (Texas A&M).
So how exactly did an offense that never converted even half their third downs suddenly convert 75% … on the road … against a good SEC team?
Honestly, I don’t know.
When I initially saw that stat, I was ready to write that, Well, of course South Carolina was great on third down. It didn’t give up a single sack. It’s pretty easy to be good on third down when it’s not third-and-20.
But that didn’t hold up because the Gamecocks didn’t allow a sack against Texas A&M either and converted less than a third of the time.
Then I was thinking it had to be because of the penalties. Fewer penalties equal fewer third-and-longs, which equal more conversions. But even that is a rough argument. South Carolina committed five offensive penalties and three of them were pre-snap.
Really, though, it’s a mix of a lot of things. Of the dozen third downs South Carolina faced, half of them were third-and-3 or shorter. That helps. But the Gamecocks also converted on a third-and-10 twice and third-and-6.
So I think we can credit South Carolina sticking with the rushing attack on first and second downs, setting them up for an easy third down. But, when he needed to, quarterback LaNorris Sellers was able to make things happen and find his receivers past the sticks.
3. Already thinking about next year’s defense
Someone asked me the other day why and how South Carolina’s defense evolved from a disastrous unit a year ago to one of the best in the country this season.
Of course it’s the defensive line, which has the third most sacks in America. Beyond that, though, I started to think about every position and sort of thought to myself: Of course they’re good, nearly all of these guys played last year.
And that’s a fact. Here’s a look at the Gamecocks’ normal starters: (Yes, there’s 12 people because sometimes the starters include two LBs, sometimes three.)
- DL Tonka Hemingway — fifth-year senior
- DL T.J. Sanders — redshirt junior
- Edge Kyle Kennard — fifth-year senior
- Edge Dylan Stewart — freshman
- LB Debo Williams — redshirt senior
- LB Demetrius Knight — sixth-year senior
- LB Bam Martin-Scott — sixth-year senior
- CB O’Donnell Fortune — redshirt senior
- CB Judge Collier — sophomore
- DB Jalon Kilgore — sophomore
- DB Nick Emmanwori — junior
- DB DQ Smith — junior
Um, that’s a lot of seniors. And when you consider that Emmanwori is likely going to the NFL after this season, there’s a good chance the Gamecocks lose seven defensive starters plus a major contributor in DT Alex “Boogie” Huntley, a redshirt senior.
This defense is elite because of its talent, but it must be recognized that its talent consists mostly of veterans. The coaching staff will have its work cut out this offseason trying to reload one of the best USC defenses in recent memory.
4. Expect Tree Babalade to play a lot
This time a year ago, South Carolina had yet to have the same offensive line combination start in two-straight games. In nine contests, it had nine different offensive lines.
This year, though, South Carolina is heading into its 10th game of the season and has yet to switch up its starting offensive line. It’s been the same five guys the entire season. No injuries. No shakeups.
I honestly don’t know which one is more rare.
Regardless, there’s a chance that changes this week. Left tackle Josiah Thompson was injured against Vanderbilt and, though coach Shane Beamer said on Thursday that Thompson would be available, that’s not a guarantee that he’ll start or even play.
Plus, and this is the bigger point, his replacement was better lat Saturday.
Tree Babalade has been an odd case this season. He started games as a freshman last season, came into 2024 as seemingly the favorite to start at left tackle, but was beaten out by Thompson, a true freshman. Before the Vanderbilt game, Babalade had taken just 23 snaps and none since week two.
But in relief on Saturday, he was South Carolina’s top offensive lineman.
Pro Football Focus graded Babalade as the Gamecocks’ top pass and run blocker. Granted it was a smaller sample size, but it’s still interesting and maybe it will lead to the South Carolina coaching staff giving him more playing time against Missouri.
5. PFF grades are pretty accurate
I really enjoy using Pro Football Focus — a website that grades every football player from every game by having analysts watch film — because I feel like it provides a nice snapshot of who was good or bad at tackling or blocking or whatever.
Sometimes, though, I’m always a tad skeptical on how accurate the grades are. Sure, Pro Football Focus could have Babalade listed as the top blocker, but maybe the USC coaches — who actually know his responsibility on every play — saw it differently.
This week, though, defensive coordinator Clayton White told me that most of the time, the PFF grades “aren’t that far off.”
So with that, here are some categories and the players PFF has graded the highest for each (Min. 60 snaps):
- Pass blocking — OL Torricelli Simpkins
- Run blocking — WR Mazeo Bennett Jr. (center Vershon Lee is the top offensive lineman)
- Receiving — TE Josh Simon (The top WRs, in order, are: Dalevon Campbell, Vandrevius Jacobs, Bennett Jr, Gage Larvadain, Nyck Harbor and Jared Brown).
- Rush defense — DT T.J. Sanders
- Pass coverage — S Nick Emmanwori
- Tackling — Demetrius Knight Jr.
- Pass rush — Knight Jr. (Dylan Stewart and Kennard aren’t far behind)
PREDICTION: South Carolina 31, Missouri 13
This story was originally published November 15, 2024 at 8:00 AM.
